ESU1 Trade on Jul 19, 2021 15:26 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Global Markets opened the week with continued selling but was aggressively bought and brought to new ATH's EOW. Market is being supported by buyers, stronger earnings growths, and technology growth with declining treasury yields. It is however on breadth deteriorations with new highs on specific leaders.

Fundamentals In Play Analysis

Global market selloff as a whole but temporary. Better than earnings growth with large/megacap technology/growth leading and carrying the markets. Covid rising cases may have been an overreaction and global recovery is mixed with economic data still pointing to growth and some specific inflationary pressures. Breadth deteriorations are still present with possibly with an overall market sentiment adjustment.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 2.0
AVOL 1.256M
ATR 44.22
Beta -
Volatility 1.23% 0.79% (SPY)
Short Float 16.19% (SPY)
Shs Float 864.78M (SPY)
Inst Own 72.8% (SPY)
Market Cap 376.59B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading + Order Flow + Dark Pool Levels + Flow Sentiment

SI 11.744
IV 24.18%
IVP 11%
P/C 2.439
VWAP 4251.764

Notable elevated order flow with heavy weight on the put side. Stats show more on the B/BB side however + the calls on the B/BB. Mixed but overall put side activity.

SPX + SPY 200k+ A/AA 07/21exp orders correlating with put side hedge activity.

SPY DP levels from 07/05 above trading price. (this is notable as price traded aggressively back into this area). DP prints showing large sell orders into the close but against price action. (may have to use this lightly and pay more attention to the former and overall price technicals)

Larger put side order flow volume implying current momentum/sentiment.

Options Positioning

OI 471/321
VOL 2073/839
Delta .02/.01
Theta -.41/-.14
Vega .20/.07
Gamma .00/.00
Prob T 4.40%/1.31%
Prob ITM 2.19%/0.65%
MMM +/- 72.12
IV Series 24.63%

Noting for the future that the models can change significantly with price action. This can give an overall idea but need to pay attention to the price action primarily for risk management.

Technical Analysis

Notable sell off, close LOD, volume done on the BID's on lower IV but into 4200 support.

Tick's hitting 1000's multiple times but at EOD there was a change in character. I noticed sectors and the market with no follow through and bottoming. The EOD buying was an early indication of a reversal. Trade risk management was assessed but wanted to see more data next day.

EOD aggressive buying support was a notable signal against this trade. The futures trading overnight price action was notable and further supported. Opening dip and rip aggressive buyer control at the open and hold above 4300 risk management level was a late confirming risk signal to hit out.

Trade Risk + Position + Size + Allocation Management & Review

(A+) setup with (B/C) execution and risk management. I noticed the earlier signs of buyers taking control. I did execute on my parameters but there is improvement to exit the trade earlier specifically at the open dip and rip scenario. There is also a long trade here that should have been looked into to flip my thesis. I decided not to execute the long side and wait for the upcoming corporate earnings reports as this was enough market information to pay for. The overall week had been now in stronger favor for upside momentum and this was used in my long plays in specific earnings trades the following days.

I need to notice where the selling had started days prior and more importantly the indexes not going down on negative ticks + EOD buying support + overnight futures support+ opening support/aggressive bid.

Position/size/allocation management was adequate at 15% of planed capital however in future trades I should consider SPY contracts for liquidity.