Stock gapped down slightly below the day of the major gap on the earnings report day. Since the major gap day’s low had been taken out in the prior afternoon, I felt it had farther to go. I made a few attempts to get short unsuccessfully, but when it got extended later in the morning after a long hard drop into/near a support level, and started trending upward on the 2 minute chart, I decided to take it as a reversal play. It trended very nicely, and I took several opportunities to add shares and move the stop up. I only wish I would have played it a little more loosely so that I could have taken the final move back up into 69.50. I exited my last piece around 68.60.
Big Picture / Overall Market
What are the most important S/R levels?
212 above and 207 below
Distance from these levels
pretty far
Market direction
market range bound
long term sideways trend
gapping slightly down
What is the market overall most concerned about presently?
fed hiking interest rates later this year
lack of continuing QE
greece
falling commodities
What is moving the market?
nothing — the market is barely moving (not trending except sideways)
Intraday Fundamentals
Lowered full year guidance
Missed quarterly earnings estimates
Beat quarterly revenue estimates
Gap Sentiment
Prior day shock
green prior day
green final 5 minute candle to end prior day
Multiple day shock - 4 out of 5 previous days were green prior to gap down
Break of short term pattern - several weeks of a basing/sideways pattern broken
Premarket volume 200k+
Relative Weakness - gapping down more than market
Technical Analysis
Support
long term: 70 and 67.50
short term: 69.50
Resistance
long term: 71.50 / prior day’s low
short term: 70.50
Trend changed on small 2 minute timeframe — high set, then new low, followed by higher high, higher low, entered on small 1 minute pullback inside higher 2 minute low
Trend supported by 2 minute 20 MA which price crossed from beneath and then came back to rest on from above
Patterns
Hard fall into long term major support
Reading the Tape
?
Intuition
Felt right about this one even though I didn’t check all the variables in advance
Execution detail:
Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
---|---|---|---|---|
2015-08-19 12:33:56 | WMT | buy | $67.960 | long |
2015-08-19 12:39:54 | WMT | sell | $68.110 | long |
2015-08-19 12:41:01 | WMT | sell | $68.170 | long |
2015-08-19 13:07:57 | WMT | buy | $68.260 | long |
2015-08-19 13:14:45 | WMT | sell | $68.450 | long |
2015-08-19 13:25:29 | WMT | sell | $68.400 | long |
2015-08-19 13:26:26 | WMT | sell | $68.380 | long |
2015-08-19 13:27:08 | WMT | sell | $68.350 | long |
2015-08-19 13:46:25 | WMT | sell | $68.550 | long |
2015-08-19 13:49:08 | WMT | sell | $68.650 | 0 |
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