CMG Trade on Jul 21, 2021 15:41 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Global Markets opened the week with continued selling but was aggressively bought and brought to new ATH's EOW. Market is being supported by buyers, stronger earnings growths, and technology growth with declining treasury yields. It is however on breadth deteriorations with new highs on specific leaders.

Fundamentals In Play Analysis

Chipotle Mexican Grill reported a beat of 0.97 which the largest in 2 years. Revenues were in-line. More importantly comps were at +31.2% above prior guidance of 20-30%. It is performing and growing stronger than with last years closures. Operating margins also increased from 24.5% from 12.2% Y/Y even with the wage increased and risking cost of supply. This is shorter-term guidance concern but the former metrics is more notable.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 4.84
AVOL 288.86K
ATR 43.85
Beta 1.35
Volatility 3.33% 2.13%
Short Float 2.86%
Shs Float 27.78M
Inst Own 92%
Market Cap 50.12B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading + Order Flow + Dark Pool Levels + Flow Sentiment

SI 6.788
IV 28.49%
IVP 24%
P/C 0.531
VWAP 1731.07

Elevated order flow call weighted activity.

Call A/AA side shorter-term expiry activity.

DP level at 1586 from day 07/19.

Overall order flow capital allocations showing call side concentration.

Options Positioning

OI 84/101
VOL 368/80
Delta -.03/-.02
Theta -.92/-.68
Vega .08/.06
Gamma .00/.00
Prob T 6.27%/4.41%
Prob ITM 3.17%/2.23%
MMM +/- 49.46
IV Series 40.55%

First time trading CMG and a bit thinner than I'm used to but the setup is there and positioning is adequate with current plan.

Earnings Statistics

Reversal risk is lower on initial momentum and expand price action range is similar with prior quarters.

Technical Analysis

Notable RVOL on ASK with a breakaway gap + price expansion + close HOD with IV decreasing. The HTF break above the longer-term is significant.

Trend Trend play + Dr. S signal significant buying volume on day 1.

Trade Risk + Position + Size + Allocation Management & Review

(A+) setup minus the liquidity. (B/C) execution as I made and EOD day 1 execution error as I attempted to scalp the wide spreads of the contracts. This is the first time I had seen this type of action and there may be opportunity here but less likely. This is how the stock trades and I need to be aware of that in the future. The error caused me to get flat EOD but I re-entered at the open. This opens the playbook expansion of scaling in more size day 2. I had recently done this on AMZN and a SNAP trade. There is positioning liquidity edge at the opening bell day 2 like EOD day 1 as orders are being done in the most volatile parts of the day.

Positioning, size, and allocation management was 50% of planned capital. This was an (A+) setup in my playbook. (A++) would be seeing better liquidity. There is opportunity in these types of trades day 2 and I'm starting to see this and act on them.