Busiest week in current earnings season with large/mega cap companies reporting. There has been a narrow leadership trend and continued breadth deteriorations and moderate expansions in lows within the indices. There is currently not a strong rotational flow seen in the prior quarters. With the packed corporate calendar week there was also a FED meeting and more economic reports. Bonds continued to see BID support will other risk-on assets have ranged to mixed price action. It is mid-earnings season with more reports but also mid-year. Delta variant has been a concern but market is pricing in better recovery than last year's with less slow down. There has been a theme of lowered guidance starting to show up on leaders and this will be noted continuing into 2H21. However there have been raised guidances on cyclical and consumer related areas.
Fundamentals In Play Analysis
PayPal reported guidance for Q3 and FY21 earnings below consensus. This was the main point in report because in an overall market context theme, investors are expecting growth and expansions moving forward from the current quarter. The company also had missed targets on TPV volume from eBay.
Analyst coverage updates. This made me less aggressive in my position but reviewing after the fact, I should have been pressed even more so because this is just a reiterate and not as notable as other instances when there are multiple upgrades from all levels of back tiers.
Quantitative Analysis
Intraday Fundamentals
RVOL 2.82
AVOL 6.41M
ATR 7.13
Beta 1.17
Volatility 2.35% 2.04%
Short Float 0.95%
Shs Float 1.17B
Inst Own 82.50%
Market Cap 327.43B
Options Statistics + Tape Reading + Order Flow + Dark Pool Levels + Flow Sentiment
SI 4.015
IV 29.95%
IVP 6%
P/C 0.642
VWAP 285.562
Elevated OOF on call B/BB. IVP is also notably low at 6%.
Put A/AA prints at the open including an ISO sweep.
Mixed overall order sentiment.
DP buy print at open. Overall overhead supply + DP level activity form 06/23.
Options Positioning
OI 4061 2834
VOL 805 832
Delta .02 .01
Theta -.09 -.03
Vega .01 .00
Gamma .01 .00
Prob T 4.54% 0.97%
Prob ITM 2.25% 0.48%
MMM +/- 4.838
IV Series 30.96%
Earnings Statistics
Technical Analysis
Gap down under support + RVOL on ASK. HTF double top. IV crush.
Noted DP level area + VPOC area + overhead supply. AVWAP ATH + prior ER as potential target. This also where there is large VPOC + 263.75 HTF inflection.
Trade Risk (risk:premium) + Position + Size + Allocation Management & Review
(A++) setup with notable catalyst in market context. Size should have been more aggressive and keeping in mind the analyst ratings and updates. Overall (B) execution and management. Capital allocation was actually 28% but with a more aggressive delta position more profit may have been achieved.
Weekly/Monthly Trading Review
This week I executed as the plays setup in my book continued to focus on process and not recovering from the earlier drawdown. I had started the week on a rough start due to outside work issues and health recovery attention. I took Wednesday off trading but still reviewing markets and possible set-ups. Thursday came back stronger and focused + pressed where it warranted. I had orders for AMD but it ran too far day 2 but this enabled more information on the next trade for QCOM which is in the same industry.
I had noticed when I focus less on the profits I tend to perform better but I need to have some goal and target to continue to grow + scale my business. I enjoy trading the way I'm currently and I may be getting too comfortable. The larger drawdown didn't shock me as much as I would of thought as I was able to pick-up right after. This was a challenge I gave myself while updating risk parameters and trading closer to the market.
There were some areas where I had scaled back overall. This was in my physical training and I think this is something I should not neglect as it has always been a key part in my overall peak performance. I also scaled back HeadSpace + Brain HQ to make more time for trading. This was a mistake and this also contributes to my overall peak performance. When I added this back in I experienced notable increased performance and achieving more focus + state of flow overall and not in just trading.
Will continue to work on goal/parameter/targets outlined this month and keep sharp going through mid earnings season. Appreciative of my peers, opportunities, networks, and continued growth in my passions. I'm closing the month still marginally profitable compared to recent months but learning at a pace much more weighted in expanding the business.
Execution detail:
Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
---|---|---|---|---|
2021-07-29 15:48:52 | 30 JUL 21 312.5 CALL | sell | $0.0700 | short |
2021-07-29 15:48:52 | 30 JUL 21 330 CALL | buy | $0.0300 | long |
2021-07-30 16:00:00 | 30 JUL 21 312.5 CALL | buy | $0.0000 | 0 |
2021-07-30 16:00:00 | 30 JUL 21 330 CALL | sell | $0.0000 | 0 |
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