US infrastructure bill was passed by the Senate this week and there were rotational shifts from growth to value. GLD sold off notably while DXY finding a bid. Earnings still in full swing with more big box retailers reporting next week. Economic reports on inflation the past coupled are showing a peak. 10 year yield and financial areas with a bid change in momentum.
Fundamentals In Play Analysis
The Senate Passed the 1T infrastructure package. There was a notable momentum bid in XLI and XLM. Nucor Corporation manufactures and produces steel products and has been showing relative strength YTD along with other industrial metals in the commodity area. This has been an ongoing market development.
Quantitative Analysis
Intraday Fundamentals
RVOL 2.39
AVOL 3.39M
ATR 4.20
Beta 1.38
Volatility 4.76% 3.75%
Short Float 1.42%
Shs Float 297.74M
Inst Own 80.20%
Market Cap 34.39B
Options Statistics + Tape Reading + Order Flow + Dark Pool Levels + Flow Sentiment
SI 6.309
IV 47.25%
IVP 68%
P/C 0.192
VWAP 115.476
ISO sweeps
EOQ 75k+ order flow
DP levels from 06/01
Options Positioning
OI 129 633
VOL 73 158
Delta -.03 -.01
Theta -.09 -.02
Vega .10 .00
Gamma .01 .00
Prob T 8.00% 1.99%
Prob ITM 4.06% 1.01%
MMM +/- 5.162
IV Series 54.13%
Technical Analysis
Trade Setup/Execution Grade + Risk (risk:premium) + Positioning + Size/Allocation Management & Review
(A/B) setup / B/C execution, 1/2RP, 4% allocation. This trade was conservatively sized as it was missing a variable in my top playbooks. I was aware of the underlying strong industrial bid in the markets and the bill was already a known event. The company was directly correlated to this trend. The market seems to be anticipating even more strength in this area and or investors were waiting for the catalyst to allocate. This is a HTF breakout ATH setup, in a strong market, and strong sector/industry. There was more opportunity in sizing this trade. This is a developing playbook and I will need to recognize this in future trades. I had similar trade stats with a recent semiconductor sector sympathy play. Liquidity and positioning was lesser in this trade which also contributed to my overall conservative execution. I had to get into less favorable prices which influenced sizing and risk management.
Execution detail:
Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
---|---|---|---|---|
2021-08-10 15:42:57 | 13 AUG 21 103 PUT | sell | $0.1100 | short |
2021-08-10 15:42:57 | 13 AUG 21 98.5 PUT | buy | $0.0400 | long |
2021-08-13 16:00:00 | 13 AUG 21 103 PUT | buy | $0.0000 | 0 |
2021-08-13 16:00:00 | 13 AUG 21 98.5 PUT | sell | $0.0000 | 0 |
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