Shared by
mrideout
Daily:
Price levels: 39.57, 39.80 @ 200 ema
Inst. Ownership: 35.20%
ATR: 2.45
AVOL: 43.2M
VOL: 61.1M
Float: 960.45M
Short float: 6.31%
Intraday:
Price had gapped down on the daily to the 200 ema, which I expected to act as strong support. At open, price did initially sell off, but rallied back to VWAP forming a double bottom. I went long on the break of vwap, however price was rejected and fell past my stop. Given the confluence of support between the 200 ema and the 39.57 level, I was confident price would rally, though I should have stopped out when price fell below the low of the second low of the double bottom. I hesitated, both due to stubbornness and having slept like dog shit the past two nights, so I was not on point.
Price did reverse, and I added near the 9 ema, and again when price approached LOD but rejected it. Mid afternoon, price did attempt to rally, however there was significant selling at the 39 level, which formed a double top. I took my exit when 39.90s could not hold.
areas of improvement
- The entry was acceptable given the double bottom that formed early in the morning, however when price immediately rejected, you should have been out. Your stop is your stop. No excuses.
- The reversal at 10:15am would have been a good entry, given the elevated volume on the doji. Take the 5 min new high and partial at vwap/whatever major price levels. Your add was late and should have been here instead.
- The second add was acceptable. Price rejected lower lows with a hammer-type candle and broke above the 9 EMA on the 5 min, indicating a change in trend.
- When price formed the hanging man at 2:15pm while extended from the 9 ema on the 5, this was a good indication to exit. L2 was also heavy. Pay attention.
Execution detail:
| Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-08-16 09:53:11 | NIO | buy | $38.958 | long |
| 2021-08-16 10:33:43 | NIO | buy | $38.515 | long |
| 2021-08-16 12:48:32 | NIO | buy | $38.529 | long |
| 2021-08-16 15:32:44 | NIO | sell | $38.870 | 0 |
Comments
mrideout
tradervue2020,
I don't usually trade right at market open. I've found I usually get chopped up pretty badly within the first 5 minutes of the market being open, given my trading style.. I tend to be more of an intraday swing trader compared to a super fast scalper. SMB Capital does talk about opening drive plays as a momentum strategy on youtube for hitting in right at market open, so if your style is geared towards faster scalping, some of their content may be helpful. The few times I do hit right in at open is if there's a support/resistance level that price has been hugging tightly and it's blatantly obvious that price is going to rip through it. It's not something I commonly do though.
I usually enter on 5 min signals, unless there is a high quality setup on the 1 min chart. I also watch the 15 min chart and will prioritize entries on that above the 5 min (the greater the time period, the more the data gets smoothed out from noise). It's all contextual and situational.
I personally likely wouldn't have taken the 9:33am rejection, since I look for small spread candles to enter in on after (e.g. a new 5 min low following a doji, or a new 5 min high following a doji).
tradervue2020
Thanks bud!
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Great analysis. Thanks for sharing. Do you normally enter based on 1m or 5m? Also would you consider the reject at open print+ bear flag under vwap at 9:33 a short signal (stop above open print) or would it be too early in the day?Thanks!