This week more retailers reported for the corporate calendar. The economic calendar provided more data on the inflation and job economic developments. The FOMC minutes were released mid-week and the market reacted strongly to the known possibility of tapering of the bond asset purchase program sooner. Buyers returned into the the close of the week and monthly expiries. Still a mixed but strong market with the recent spike in the VIX.
Fundamentals In Play Analysis
Home Depot reported top and bottom line beats with the rising + developing economy after pandemic slowdowns. Y/Y growth comps were in focus as this was missed. They reported a drop in customer transactions. Separately economic building permit data and consumer sentiment survey's also showed a recent decrease. Overall this may have signaled a deceleration of their business and the housing sector. This is the first report showing this change within a strong underlying market.
Quantitative Analysis
Intraday Fundamentals
RVOL 2.73
AVOL 3.39
ATR 6.19
Beta 1.03
Volatility 1.86% 1.52%
Short Float 1.13%
Shs Float 1.06B
Inst Own 72.20%
Market Cap 343.82B
Options Statistics + Tape Reading + Order Flow + Dark Pool Levels + Flow Sentiment
SI 2.019
IV 23.96%
IVP 20%
P/C 0.805
VWAP 319.75
Options Positioning
OI 2682 862 / 3363 1042
VOL 1511 407 / 1576 1004
Delta -.02 -.01 / .01 .01
Theta -.07 -.04 / -.06 -.02
Vega .01 .01 / .01 .00
Gamma .00 .00 / .00 .00
Prob T 3.78% 1.59% / 2.64% 0.87%
Prob ITM 1.90% 0.80% / 1.31% 0.55%
MMM +/- 6.391
IV Series 26.27%
Earnings Statistics
Technical Analysis
Trade Setup/Execution Grade + Risk (risk:premium) + Positioning + Size/Allocation Management & Review
(A/B) setup / (A) execution as this was a developed playbook adaptation to start applying delta neutral strategies. The reason for this is because of the overall market context, week going into FOMC minutes, and a relatively strong business with good earnings. Initially I had a short thesis but this fit a new adaptation to the playbook under the context. This was executed very conservatively on market positioning. R:P was 1/3 and ~10% allocation. Will be keeping in mind the new strategy adaptation within given market developing context.
Execution detail:
Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
---|---|---|---|---|
2021-08-17 15:54:45 | 20 AUG 21 350 CALL | sell | $0.0700 | short |
2021-08-17 15:54:45 | 20 AUG 21 365 CALL | buy | $0.0200 | long |
2021-08-17 15:54:45 | 20 AUG 21 295 PUT | sell | $0.0700 | short |
2021-08-17 15:54:45 | 20 AUG 21 280 PUT | buy | $0.0400 | long |
2021-08-20 15:59:00 | 20 AUG 21 350 CALL | buy | $0.0000 | 0 |
2021-08-20 15:59:00 | 20 AUG 21 295 PUT | buy | $0.0000 | 0 |
2021-08-20 15:59:00 | 20 AUG 21 365 CALL | sell | $0.0000 | 0 |
2021-08-20 15:59:00 | 20 AUG 21 280 PUT | sell | $0.0000 | 0 |
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