M Trade on Aug 19, 2021 15:15 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

This week more retailers reported for the corporate calendar. The economic calendar provided more data on the inflation and job economic developments. The FOMC minutes were released mid-week and the market reacted strongly to the known possibility of tapering of the bond asset purchase program sooner. Buyers returned into the the close of the week and monthly expiries. Still a mixed but strong market with the recent spike in the VIX.

Fundamentals In Play Analysis

Macy's reported an adjusted EPS to 1.29 from (0.81) a year ago and beat current consensus by 0.18. Revenue was higher and FY21 guidance was raised to 3.41 - 3.75 from 1.71 - 2.12. Same store comps showed +61.2%. The company is notably benefiting from the consumer driven changes and sentiment in the return to in store shopping/purchasing. They had also reinstated dividends with a 500M share repurchase program. Macy's is potentially positioned for strong continuation into Q3 and the holiday season.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 10.13
AVOL 13.66M
ATR 1.13
Beta 2.12
Volatility 7.00% 5.29%
Short Float 13.58%
Shs Float 311.12M
Inst Own 82.30%
Market Cap 6.87B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading + Order Flow + Dark Pool Levels + Flow Sentiment

SI 8.825
IV 73.78%
IVP 18%
P/C 0.397
VWAP 20.891

Options Positioning

OI 4010 9806
VOL 4171 1194
Delta -.06 -.01
Theta -.05 -.01
Vega .00 .00
Gamma .07 .01
Prob T 13.75% 2.84%
Prob ITM 6.99% 1.45%
MMM +/- 1.251
IV Series 105.27%

Earnings Statistics

Technical Analysis

Trade Setup/Execution Grade + Risk (risk:premium) + Positioning + Size/Allocation Management & Review

(A/B) setup / (B/C) execution. R:P 1/3, conservative/moderate positioning, very conservative ~5% allocation. This was great setup overall and I should of weighted the RVOL and order flow variables heavier. I was in a position of higher delta but in context of the whole trade more size should of been allocated to the trade. These are situations where I can add more lots within an elevated market positioning parameter. There was a clear strong fundamental catalyst, order flow, and technical setup. The market was also in play bouncing from a recent sell off.