TGT Trade on Aug 19, 2021 15:44 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

This week more retailers reported for the corporate calendar. The economic calendar provided more data on the inflation and job economic developments. The FOMC minutes were released mid-week and the market reacted strongly to the known possibility of tapering of the bond asset purchase program sooner. Buyers returned into the the close of the week and monthly expiries. Still a mixed but strong market with the recent spike in the VIX.

Fundamentals In Play Analysis

Target reported marginal beats and in-line with consensus and guidance. Since the last reported quarter the price has appreciated ~50%. The market has priced these earnings in and has reacted with similar "sell the news" sentiment and profit taking. Walmart also had reported the day prior with similar reactions.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 1.52
AVOL 3.32M
ATR 4.85
Beta 0.99
Volatility 2.62% 1.77%
Short Float 1.89%
Shs Float 490.73M
Inst Own 82.10%
Market Cap 121.57B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading + Order Flow + Dark Pool Levels + Flow Sentiment

SI 0.759
IV 27.54%
IVP 29%
P/C 0.482
VWAP 247.248

Options Positioning

OI 1544 2468
VOL 551 357
Delta .02 .01
Theta -.07 -.03
Vega .01 .00
Gamma .01 .00
Prob T 4.44% 0.97%
Prob ITM 2.21% 0.48%
MMM +/- 4.196
IV Series 30.92%

Earnings Statistics

Technical Analysis

Trade Setup/Execution Grade + Risk (risk:premium) + Positioning + Size/Allocation Management & Review

(B/A) setup / (B/C) execution. R/P 1/3, conservative positioning, conservative/moderate ~20% allocation. As a 2nd day earnings trade this is more a B setup after reviewing the selling exhaustion and buyers aggressively stepping in at 0DTE. Execution was more a (C) and feeler traded with the catalyst being played out. I did anticipate more selling but I forgot to recognize that this is one of the leading big box retailers of the market with high IO. Another main variable I missed is the overall market bounce finding aggressive buyers. In future trades I will have to weigh more evidence on the overall market in day 2+ trades.

Weekly Trading Review

Overall a good week of trading and good trade planning + adjusting. One of my goals for the week was to be able to navigate my playbook trades in the elevated volatile market. I considered a market play trade but did not execute them due to seeing the reversals and price action stabilizing. I kept in mind monthly expiries and found it interesting to be able to trade some of them within my weekly playbook parameters. Monthly + Quarterly expirations will be noted in future trading and a possible opportunities to expand into as I only trade within an intra day to week timeframe for active trading.