COUP Trade on Sep 8, 2021 14:50 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Markets opened into the week with a few more corporate earnings. Lighter economic calendar. ECB announced a start of bond tapering. FED will be meeting in 2 weeks but mixed to lower anticipated jobs data continuing to being released. Inflation data shows a deceleration from the prior months. EOW notable selling momentum and into quad expiry week. Markets will be entering Q4 after that. Corporate earnings are still showing more positive earnings guidance and industrial/material inventory still strained.

Fundamentals In Play Analysis

Coupa Software reported a beat in top + bottom line and raised guidance. Historically the company has sandbagged guidance and noting that it was different for the next quarter. The LLamasoft and accounting changes are a headwind on revenue growth along with business travel with the Delta variant. The outlook remains the same as last quarters as customers remain cautious.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 3.34
AVOL 1.25M
ATR 8.87
Beta 1.43
VIX 17.96
Volatility 4.40% 3.52%
Short Float 10.15%
Shs Float 68.90M
Inst Own 102.47%
Market Cap 18.13B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading + Order Flow + Dark Pool Levels + Flow Sentiment

SI 2.467
IV 53.81%
IVP 42%
P/C 0.515
VWAP 258.361

Options Positioning

OI 522 320
VOL 597 190
Delta .02 .01
Theta -.14 -.07
Vega .01 .01
Gamma .00 .00
Prob T 3.97% 1.64%
Prob ITM 1.96% 0.81%
MMM +/- 9.152
IV Series 51.25%

Earnings Statistics

Technical Analysis

Trade Setup/Execution Grade + Risk (risk:premium) + Positioning + Size/Allocation Management & Review

(A/B) setup, (B) execution. 1/2RP, conservative positioning, ~19% allocation. Price had rallied into 270 HTF inflection onto ER which found notable selling. These are plays where I can position closer to the market because there is a clear inflection level. I played this too conservative and this is where I need to press into (A) trades. Market positioning will continue to be within ATR risk parameter's.