MRNA Trade on Sep 9, 2021 15:41 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Markets opened into the week with a few more corporate earnings. Lighter economic calendar. ECB announced a start of bond tapering. FED will be meeting in 2 weeks but mixed to lower anticipated jobs data continuing to being released. Inflation data shows a deceleration from the prior months. EOW notable selling momentum and into quad expiry week. Markets will be entering Q4 after that. Corporate earnings are still showing more positive earnings guidance and industrial/material inventory still strained.

Fundamentals In Play Analysis

Moderna has been seeing more bullish news flow recently and sentiment has been also in-line with that. They had a Research and Development presentation which made a couple notable updates and announcements. The most recent market relative announcement was a combined Covid-19 booster + flu vaccine candidate. They highlighted other key clinical programs and developments.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 1.28
AVOL 17.25M
ATR 29.81
Beta -
VIX 18.80
Volatility 5.94% 6.96%
Short Float 4.22%
Shs Float 364.59M
Inst Own 57.90%
Market Cap 175.62B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading + Order Flow + Dark Pool Levels + Flow Sentiment

SI *
IV *
IVP *
P/C *
VWAP *

(*missing review data)

Options Positioning

OI 1609 334
VOL 524 43
Delta -.01 .00
Theta -.19 -.02
Vega .01 .00
Gamma .00 .00
Prob T 3.34% 0.39%
Prob ITM 1.70% 0.20%
MMM +/- 15.048
IV Series 69.49%

Technical Analysis

Trade Setup/Execution Grade + Risk (risk:premium) + Positioning + Size/Allocation Management & Review

(A/B) setup (B) execution. 1/2RP, very conservative positioning, ~28% allocation. This was a trade that was planned w/ another ER trade at the same time therefore my position was very conservative here as I had more moderate positioning in a better playbook trade. The other was unable to be executed due to my parameters and pricing. This ended up ok as I only want to be in trades in prices and parameters I specify. Grading the MRNA trade alone I think I could have positioned closer to the market. 400 could have been an alternative short strike keeping in mind the type and momentum of the trade. The market was seeing more sellers hence the selected parameter.

Weekly Trading Review

Good trading in the shortened week while volatility is rising and going in quad expiry. 2/4 trades this week was news related and lesser than my A/A+ playbooks. An ER trade did not execute due to my parameters but I would have not changed anything. There was more perceived risk in this trade due to the day 1 price action. Day 2 proved this correct w/ the market experiencing more selling. I had been making adjustments to that trade and gained more experience in the order flow and execution side of the trade. Still a gain in learning and experiencing to allow myself to execute better on the next trade. Keeping in mind these will be keys to growing the business and trade book.