HLF Trade on Sep 14, 2021 15:44 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Options expirations week with quarterlies and with end of current corporate earnings season. Some economic reports and selling momentum continuations from last week. FED monetary policy meeting next week to close the month as well.

Fundamentals In Play Analysis

Herbalife Nutrition updated and lowered Q3 and FY21 guidance. Net sales expect a decline of (6.5%) - (3.5%) vs. (1.0%) - 5.10% growth. FY21 net sales growth 4.5%-8.5%, down from 8.5%-12.5%. EPS 4.55-4.95 (prior 4.70 - 5.10). Repurchase program of 200M shares in Q3/Q4.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 13.04
AVOL 763.40k
ATR 1.89
Beta 0.92
VIX 19.46
Volatility 5.30% 2.77%
Short Float 5.48%
Shs Float 102.28M
Inst Own 92.10%
Market Cap 4.86B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading + Order Flow + Dark Pool Levels + Flow Sentiment

SI 3.035
IV 41.52%
IVP 41%
P/C 0.952
VWAP 45.019

Options Positioning

OI 5266
VOL 219
Delta .07
Theta -.08
Vega .01
Gamma .03
Prob T 11.37%
Prob ITM 5.56%
MMM +/- 3.154
IV Series 91.13%

Technical Analysis

Trade Setup/Execution Grade + Risk (risk:premium) + Positioning + Size/Allocation Management & Review

(A) setup / (B) execution. 1/2RP, moderate positioning, 6% allocation. Single leg position due to liquidity but it was an (A) setup in the playbook. Kept in mind the position risk and size was conservative for the type of trade. I had decided to press/add more into the trade the next morning but the opportunity for good price entry had passed. In the future I will carefully re-evaluate these trades and press into the trade with a more moderate/aggressive size in-line with my allocation risk parameters.