ADBE Trade on Sep 22, 2021 14:25 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Markets opened with a gap down on news of Chinese real estate property debt solvency company Evergrande concerns. In addition there was a FED rate policy meeting + press conference in the middle of the week. There was also concerns of the US debt ceiling being raised. Infrastructure bills have been a continued market focus. Volatility spiked but ended the week with buyers back in the market as concerns were fully priced in and direction re-established. Corporate events were light to start the week but picked up with the market.

Fundamentals In Play Analysis

Adobe beat top and bottom line estimates but not as robust as prior quarters. The reported a growth of revenue of 20% and a 0.09 EPS beat. The stock also has appreciated about 17% since the last report. They have solid segments in digital activity which is were the economy is shifting but it also has a 52X forward earnings valuation.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 3.53
AVOL 1.59M
ATR 13.25
Beta 0.97
VIX 20.87
Volatility 2.20% 1.66%
Short Float 0.99%
Shs Float 474.93M
Inst Own 85.30%
Market Cap 303.11B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading + Order Flow + Dark Pool Levels + Flow Sentiment

SI 3.61
IV 28.90%
IVP 25%
P/C 0.843
VWAP 623.859

Options Positioning

OI 610 306 / 625 529
VOL 1260 437 / 1092 876
Delta -.03 -.02 / .02 .01
Theta -.23 -.15 / -.15 -.10
Vega .03 .02 / .02 .01
Gamma .00 .00 / .00 .00
Prob T 6.68% 3.76% / 3.85% 2.86%
Prob ITM 3.36% 1.89% / 1.91% 1.08%
MMM +/- 12.32
IV Series 28.17%

Earnings Statistics

Technical Analysis

Trade Setup/Execution Grade + Risk (risk:premium) + Positioning + Size/Allocation Management & Review

(A/B) setup / (A) execution. 1/2RP, conservative/moderate positioning, 20% allocation. This has been a more recent development playbook and is showing edge. Continuing to execute it and work on the risk parameters. There is more to extract here but risk is elevated being a delta neutral strategy. There are key technical factors on day 1 that need to be seen with follow through on day 2. Also this is showing to work with more beta's closer to 1 and or less.