DLTR Trade on Sep 29, 2021 13:43 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Market found buyers end of last week with VIX retracing and continued to open the week. This pivoted sharply into the next trading day with rising yields + inflation, and political hold ups on the government funding to remain open, debt ceiling, and funding for the infrastructure bill. This is also ending the current quarter and starting day 1 of the new quarter on Friday. Key economic reports and the start of next quarter's corporate earnings report will be of attention going into 1H22 where bond tapering and interest rates are expected to be adjusted to rise.

Fundamentals In Play Analysis

Dollar Tree announced that it is adding products at slightly higher price points and indicates a broader expansion of their business line considering the recent earnings report of decreased margins due to supply chain constraints. The company is now expected to recover sooner than anticipated because of this. They also increased their share buyback plan to 2.5B which is a notable 13% of their market cap total.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 9.26
AVOL 2.84M
ATR 3.10
Beta 0.84
VIX 22.56
Volatility 3.46% 2.39%
Short Float 2.35%
Shs Float 221.90M
Inst Own 93.40%
Market Cap 22.89B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading + Order Flow + Dark Pool Levels + Flow Sentiment

SI 26.043
IV 37.34%
IVP 54%
P/C 0.293
VWAP 98.169

Options Positioning

OI 235 268
VOL 789 288
Delta -.04 -.02
Theta -.08 -.04
Vega .01 .00
Gamma .01 .01
Prob T 8.57% 3.79%
Prob ITM 4.34% 1.92%
MMM +/- 3.617
IV Series 51.47%

Technical Analysis

Day 2

Trade Setup/Execution Grade + Risk (risk:premium) + Positioning + Size/Allocation Management & Review

(A/B) setup / (B) execution. 1/.05RP moderate dynamic positioning, 13% - 7% allocation. This was a working playbook setup that showed a notable change in character on the 2nd day. I had scaled out of the position to manage risk in the event if the market had continued weakness. Day 2 was had a notable sympathy effect from peer industry earnings. This was seen across multiple names. In a future event I could scale less out. I also need to recognize the individual's ATR movement. Overall risk was managed in-line with some opportunity left on the table to cover risk. Keeping in mind smaller positions in higher volatile environments.

Weekly Trading Review

Overall this week provided notable insights on my expanding + adapting positioning. I did not think this week would provide a lot of opportunity due to the corporate calendar and end of the quarter close. This was exactly opposite of my thoughts and I was ready to adapt and execute trades if the market provided them.

Monthly Trading Review

Since updating, adapting, and expanding my playbook this month has shown notable performance in my trading. Key was to keep doing the research/homework as if the corporate calendar was in full earnings swing. There are still opportunities and there is also ways to expand playbooks and continue to build on them. Continuing to do so and manage risk and keep the playbook open. Grateful to be entering the last quarter of the year with renewed open-mindedness continuing to learn and now network and provide insight to the trading community when it makes sense. This will be key to continue to expand perspective and business.