STZ Trade on Oct 7, 2021 15:40 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Markets opened on selling momentum from last week with continued agenda's. More notably there was persistent elevated volatility until mid-week when the debt ceiling was addressed and extended until December 3rd to allow more time. The market strongly rallied here but mid to higher time frame price action still showing sellers in control. Earnings season starts next week with financials reporting.

Fundamentals In Play Analysis

Constellation Brands reported a quarterly EPS miss with Revenue's mixed as consumer trends shift from their hard seltzer drinks to beers with increasing restaurants and bar openings. They did raise FY22 guidance higher to an EPS of 10.15-10.45 vs. 10.00-10.30. Their was an impact in higher COGS (cost of goods sold) more likely due to inflationary + rising shipping costs. The consumer consumption and spending trend within their business outlook is looking better in the longer-term after reporting shorter-term concerns that have developed.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 1.81
AVOL 1.10M
ATR 4.10
Beta 1.16
VIX 19.54
Volatility 2.34% 1.69%
Short Float 1.15%
Shs Float 161.05M
Inst Own 82.80%
Market Cap 40.95B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading + Order Flow + Dark Pool Levels + Flow Sentiment

SI 0.77
IV 24.47%
IVP 16%
P/C 0.615
VWAP 216.77

Options Positioning

OI 951
VOL 129
Delta -.02
Theta -.07
Vega .01
Gamma .01
Prob T 4.86%
Prob ITM 2.45%
MMM +/- 2.719
IV Series 22.73%

Earnings Statistics

Technical Analysis

Trade Setup/Execution Grade + Risk (risk:premium) + Positioning + Size/Allocation Management & Review

(A/B) setup / (B) execution. 1/1RP, conservative positioning, 18% allocation. Although this is part of my (A+) playbooks within earnings, it was not the order flow that I'm looking for to press in size. I did position and size accordingly and entered a single leg due to liquidity and time value. The technical setup within an earnings report is what stood out to me. This was a trade to take but not necessarily a trade to press size and risk more. Although I can consider a position of up to 20% allocation for these type of trades.

Weekly Trading Review : Total Net (R) / Active Allocation (%)

Net (R) 5.79 / 57% Active Allocation. Good trading week overall and scaled back due to volatility and gear changing into a new corporate earnings calendar. Debt ceiling has been addressed until December 3rd and this adds positive sentiment and bids in the market however on a higher time frame price action view, there are sellers still in control. Will have to keep the adapting big picture in mind and also see how the VIX develops into earnings season along with reports and guidances.