AVIR Trade on Oct 19, 2021 08:46 from Rolling-Bubbles: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

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Fresh all time lows in this AVIR after its covid drug for critical patients failed as it did not pass the federal threshold for the minimum passing rate. Stock was down below precovid levels (something I now observed after the close) so more than likely AVIR was oversold and had a good chance of trending up for the day after dropping as much as 75% in premarket trading. RVOL was very high 50+ so this stock was certainly in play and with such an obvious catalyst, this was surely an A+ set up. My favorite part about this set up was that the resistance levels were all premarket levels and the inflection was point was also based off premarket price action.
Entry : In the premarket, AVIR found brief support at 11.64 around 6:40 and then after undercutting 11.64, at 7:30 AVIR backtested the 11.64 which now acted as resistance. This made 11.64 the inflection point and the spot for me to get in. Above 11.64, the resistance levels and therefore also my targets at 12.4, 13, 14.3, 14.55, 15, 16.
- Right off the open volume was high and AVIR undercut VWAP in the first min and immediately rallied beyond it in the second min, completing an intraday UnR. This told me that momentum was shifting to the upside. By 8:35 AVIR inflection point 11.64 was tested which failed but the pullback was on noticeably low volume. The pullback was then followed by a grinding low volume low range move up for the next 5 mins until AVIR reached 11.64 again, broke out with an igniting candlestick that was larger than all the candlesticks besides the first two and was met with** increasing volume**, almost the same amount as the first two. This was clue to enter with a full core size, which is what I did. At this point an upward slopping trendline could have also been drawn for better visual representation of the move. My entry was at 11.76 and the stop would have been below the breakout candle at 11.50, risking 16 cents. The R/R was obviously favorable since the move to R1 would have a +3R move.
8:46-8:50 - this was a missed opportunity by me because the price action gave me an A+ opportunity to add more risk to this play. AVIR spent the time between 8:46-8:50 inside the breakout candle on lower volume then the breakout and opening candles but more than the first pullback. This makes sense though and the stock is still acting textbook because price got nowhere near the bottom range of the breakout candle or the inflection point. 8:50 was a chance for me to add more size, risking about 15 more cents. The period from 8:51-8:57 also provided with an opportunity to add size though I wouldn't have done so if I had added size earlier. But this time AVIR backtested 12.09, which become resistance upon the initial breakout. I actually think this is a more valid add spot then the first one because the exit level can be more precise, upon an undercut support (which was initially resistance).
Exits - The plan was take profits into resistance levels and thats basically what I did except for my initial profit taking. The spot where I should have initially is where I took profit. I think this was a big mistake because at this point price action was textbook and therefore I should have let it run more, Profit taking would have made more sense if I had added the size initially but since I did not, I needed to let this set up run a bit more so I could squeeze as much alpha as I can from it. I will get better atthis with time I think after playing a couple more #firstdayreversal set ups and gaining more conviction about them. Right now, handling a stock that has been down 50%+ is not my strength because I am terrified of the large swings these biotech stocks are capable off in a matter of second. It is important to keep risk tight and pay yourself along the way.
- As AVIR approached R3, I had taken off more than 855 of my size and let the rest run above R3. As volume seemed to be climaxing, I closed the position. The stock remained on my radar for the rest of the day as I was out by 10 am but no real volume came in and it remained in a tight range so there was no need to add for an additional bounce


Execution detail:

Date/time Symbol Side Price Position
2021-10-19 08:46:43 AVIR buy $11.765 long
2021-10-19 08:46:43 AVIR buy $11.765 long
2021-10-19 08:46:43 AVIR buy $11.770 long
2021-10-19 08:46:43 AVIR buy $11.770 long
2021-10-19 08:46:43 AVIR buy $11.770 long
2021-10-19 08:50:06 AVIR sell $12.072 long
2021-10-19 09:01:54 AVIR sell $12.915 long
2021-10-19 09:03:23 AVIR sell $13.570 long
2021-10-19 09:09:18 AVIR sell $14.120 long
2021-10-19 09:38:23 AVIR sell $15.730 long
2021-10-19 09:39:12 AVIR sell $15.480 0


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