Market Lesson: W 10-19-21
Major Mistakes in Planning:
I made a plan to trade W based on it breakout of the 248 level to fill a gap at 266. Wayfair gapped over night I am guessing because it it signaled a hammer candle coming out of demand the previous day.
Major Mistakes in analysis:
I really think that the best trade was to get in on the hammer candle out of demand the day before since I was watching it the day before. I was aware of all the resistance above.
Major Mistakes in executing:
First of all I never waited for W to clear 248 and offer me an entry long. I just decided to anticipate the break out but in doing that I really had nowhere to risk off of and just decided to get in. I did notice it bounce off the VWAP on the 1min which i took as a bullish indication to stay in the trade.
Major Psychological Mistakes:
I think this one comes back down to FOMO but I am also noticing my psyche reacting to the inability to get good fills and be able to actually enter trades when I want to. I have to realize that anticipating a breakout with no clear pattern or structure to risk off of is just handing money to the market for it to keep. I know I can't get a good fill if it breaks out so its in my best interest to risk off a pattern or VWAP or something of the sorts if I plan on anticipating a breakout.
TA chart:
Trade plan:
The plan was to look for a break and hold of the 247.90 level with volume. Enter swings.
How you plan to avoid this mistake in the future:
I really needed to expand my plan to include the IF statement that you can short if it rejects the 247.90 level and breaks VWAP. That's a great short opportunity back down to HOD yesterday then I can look for the pattern break and get long to see that gap fill again. The gap fill still has yet to happen and W has pulled back below 240.
Another thing to think about and learn to be better next time is just be willing to close out a position early and open up a put position. Being mentally nimble especially on the open is critical to making sure you are green 17/20 days a month.
Execution detail:
Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
---|---|---|---|---|
2021-10-19 09:37:05 | 22 OCT 21 255 CALL | buy | $2.000 | long |
2021-10-19 09:52:13 | 22 OCT 21 255 CALL | sell | $1.600 | 0 |
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