ULTA Trade on Oct 19, 2021 14:57 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Second week into earnings season with continued momentum from the prior week. SPY reached new highs to end the week. Busy week with more corporate reports and announcements. The first futures backed Bitcoin ETF started trading. Next couple weeks will be filled with more earnings scheduled and the technology industry reporting.

Fundamentals In Play Analysis

Ulta Beauty held its Investor Day and released long term financial targets. They expect annualized revenue growth of +5-7% and +3-5% same store growth from FY22 through FY24. Comparable prior FY sales growth was between +5-17% every year. This is sign of slowdown in growth moving forward even though consumers trend shifts as people are going out more and interacting which should be a tailwind for the business. Slower revenue growth is a concern with a forward PE ratio of 24.6x within the industry.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 6.63
AVOL 623.64K
ATR 11.87
Beta 1.72
VIX 15.70
Volatility 3.85% 2.67%
Short Float 2.90%
Shs Float 52.84M
Inst Own 92.70%
Market Cap 19.66B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading + Order Flow + Dark Pool Levels + Flow Sentiment

SI 6.166
IV 31.43%
IVP 29%
P/C 1.063
VWAP 381.402

Options Positioning

OI 148 175
VOL 680 86
Delta .05 .01
Theta -.24 -.08
Vega .03 .01
Gamma .01 .00
Prob T 8.81% 2.18%
Prob ITM 4.36% 1.08%
MMM +/- 13.121
IV Series 48.83%

Technical Analysis

Trade Setup/Execution Grade + Risk (risk:premium) + Positioning + Size/Allocation + Dynamic Management & Review

Trade Setup : A+
Execution : A
Risk/Premium : 0.45/1
Positioning Risk - Std Dev : moderate/aggressive - 3.28
Size/Allocation Risk : 33%
Dynamic Risk : No

This was an (A+) setup in my playbook and I executed it as planned as reviewed in prior trades. I should be open on a day 2 or 3 reversal hedging with a long if there is a strong bid + if capital allocation allows it. I had a 33% allocation to this trade and was sized in larger than normal but this was a trade to press into on the short side. Will think about allocating on the long side for dynamic risk management.