NFLX Trade on Oct 20, 2021 14:26 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Second week into earnings season with continued momentum from the prior week. SPY reached new highs to end the week. Busy week with more corporate reports and announcements. The first futures backed Bitcoin ETF started trading. Next couple weeks will be filled with more earnings scheduled and the technology industry reporting.

Fundamentals In Play Analysis

Netflix reported an EPS beat with slight Q4 EPS/margin downside guidance due to content amortization. Business is not slowing down but normalizing looking forward. The stock has rallied 22% since mid August but trading at an all time hight after almost a year of consolidation. There has has been an allocation shift within the communications industry mainly advertising companies seeing more sellers. Netflix is seeing notable relative strength in this aspect.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 2.94
AVOL 3.59M
ATR 16.00
Beta 0.79
VIX 15.49
Volatility 2.28% 2.66%
Short Float 2.11%
Shs Float 435.83M
Inst Own 82.10%
Market Cap 279.11B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading + Order Flow + Dark Pool Levels + Flow Sentiment

SI 3.672
IV 26.95%
IVP 13%
P/C 0.624
VWAP 627.293

Options Positioning

OI 3785 2512 6284 2611
VOL 2708 735 7568 2562
Delta -.01 .00 .03 .01
Theta -.14 -.05 -.25 -.07
Vega .02 .01 .03 .01
Gamma .00 .00 .00 .00
Prob T 3.30% 1.04% 4.96% 1.26%
Prob ITM 1.67% 0.52% 2.46% 0.63%
MMM +/- 15.34
IV Series 35.17%

Earnings Statistics

Technical Analysis

Trade Setup/Execution Grade + Risk (risk:premium) + Positioning + Size/Allocation + Dynamic Management & Review

Trade Setup : A/B (playbook adaptation)
Execution : B/C
Risk/Premium : 0.5/1
Positioning Risk - Std Dev : conservative - +3.58 -3.58
Size/Allocation Risk : 16%
Dynamic Risk : Yes

This is a playbook adaptation in development. The risk parameters were set properly and on the conservative end. Day 1 price action had a short bias lean but lows held. As soon as day 2 showed upside follow through risk was to the upside. I did not execute this as best as I could because I made mistakes scaling out and dynamically managing risk on the short side. The stock had traded higher than 1 Std Dev by the time my parameters were hit and I decided to hold a portion of the short side. This was a mistake as I did not recognize the price action in ATH's. This should be a notable variable in future trades. A notable change of character from day 1. I later scaled out which was still an acceptable drawdown but a subpar decision as the short position should have been flat by then.

I was also managing 3 other trade opportunities at the same time and ran into total allocation limits. I decided to exit the rest of the winning side of the trade to allocate capital to the next best opportunities in play. This was an excellent decision and something I may have to keep in mind when my capital is maximized dependent on the market.

Overall recognizing risk earlier is the important point. I had done so but remained partially biased to my trade plan, which was within the original plan. This can be improved in future trades by simply moving flat on one side and even adding size to the winning end ad a possibility. In this case it was executing/adding to better trades simultaneously.