TSLA Trade on Oct 5, 2015 09:30 from Holden: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

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Holden

 

Consolidation below ONL/Key S w Confirmation and change of character- TSLA- Not letting play confirm

HORRIBLE TRADING FROM A R/R perspective.

Lets make it 3 in a row for the same Anti-playbook trade. Not having enough checks in my favor and taking a play without making it confirm. I have my trading rules for a reason, because they do a great job of keeping me out of trouble and when followed effectively, make sure that I get appropriate confirmation before getting involved with the play.
TSLA was a name I was expecting to be in play off a fresh news story that the company delivered delivered 11,580 vehicles in q3, -33,000 for the year. May struggle to hit lowered target of 50,000. (would need to deliver 17,000 vehicles in Q4 and has mentioned production delays with Model X so seemed unlikely they would hit lowered target this year.
What was I looking for

I was looking for a failure to take out any key R level from the pre-market above just after the open, a hard failure below pre-market support on strong volume, consolidation below key support and vwap with sellers clearly in control of the action and an opportunity to get short for a momentum/trend drive lower with sellers in control of the action.
I was looking for dissapointed longs looking to liquidate on the expectation TSLA may not hit lowered guidance.
I NEVER HAD A REASON TO GET SHORT THIS NAME FOR A PLAY BECAUSE PRICE ACTION NEVER GAVE ME A REASON TO ENTER THIS PLAY.
My thought process-

TSLA had seemed to be breaking lower out of a consolidation on a daily time frame and despite the rally up Friday was unable to take out the 3 day high showing me that sellers may be in control of the action here.
Was gapping down and showing relative weakness to most of the rest of the market - actually had gapped up.)
In first 2 min traded higher up to 250 but failed there so I got short against that level looking for a big, strong move down to 242 and below (prior day support)
When action did not break and hold below pre-market S I thought I was getting a gift and got bigger on the consolidation at the lows thinking for sure the action was going to crack lower despite the lack of volume (HUGE RED FLAG)
Action went higher and tested my stop but did not hit it before breaking lower and almost hitting my target but not quite. Consolidated at the lows so I stayed with it but action failed to hold lower and buyers stepped in so I stopped out.
Why is this my anti-playbook trade and what do I need to do to improve
I need to get confirmation in every play before I get involved. Dont cheat no matter what I think could happen, get confirmation first before getting involved and if it does not confirm, move on. No reason to push when its not there.


Execution detail:

Date/time Symbol Side Price Position
2015-10-05 09:30:47 TSLA sell $247.360 short
2015-10-05 09:38:27 TSLA sell $246.720 short
2015-10-05 10:53:22 TSLA buy $245.740 0


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