TWLO Trade on Oct 28, 2021 15:12 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Markets continued momentum from the prior week with some selling mid and buying higher to end the month. Seasonal market trends favor buyers into the end of the year but will be watching closely for notable changes if the rate of buying and positive sentiment increases with more momentum. Very notable week in regards of total company earnings reports. Supply constraints were noted in multiple areas. Hyperinflation and cryptocurrency are also seen in high public relation sentiment but noteworthy fundamental and market structure developments are continuing to be observed. (ie. ETF/SEC regulations, FED updates on policies + global central banks)

Fundamentals In Play Analysis

Twilio reported upside EPS and Revenues but guided Q4 EPS below consensus and revenues above. The main catalyst was the slowing organic growth and concern going into Q4. Q2's growth were at 50% vs. Q3's at 38%. They also announced that the COO was resigning. This adds to negative sentiment overall. A growth company showing signs of slowness is also not good within other growth area competitors. The company is currently trading at 17x sales among its peers.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 14.41
AVOL 1.49M
ATR 16.02
Beta 1.38
VIX 16.53
Volatility 4.92% 3.67%
Short Float 3.20%
Shs Float 166.15M
Inst Own 84.60%
Market Cap 52.03B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading + Order Flow + Dark Pool Levels + Flow Sentiment

SI 10.532
IV 48.14%
IVP 26%
P/C 0.429
VWAP 289.269

Options Positioning

OI 1914 44
VOL 1914 201
Delta .02 .01
Theta -.14 -.03
Vega .01 .00
Gamma .00 .00
Prob T 3.80% 0.87%
Prob ITM 1.88% 0.43%
MMM +/- 9.633
IV Series 61.91%

Earnings Statistics

Technical Analysis

Trade Setup/Execution Grade + Risk (risk:premium) + Positioning + Size/Allocation + Dynamic Management & Review

Trade Setup : A
Execution : A
Risk/Premium : 0.45/1
Positioning Risk | Std Dev : moderate | 2.367
Size/Allocation Risk : 20%
Dynamic Risk : Yes

In this dynamic position trade I was watching the tape at the closing session and noted bids stepping down quickly. This is where I doubled my position pressing into the trade. This was good but I think I can do better on this specific time frame setup and position closer to 1.5 Std Dev. I'm still weighting more technical levels to manage positioning risk but will keep the former in mind for development. Day 2 found a reversal and this would of been an added risk but still within the working trade thesis.

Weekly Trading Review

This week was the busiest week I have encountered thus far. I had partially missed fundamental key variables in trades where I could have improved my trading. I was far more active this week which probably contributed in the former. I will have to allocate more screen time to help improve this. This will also allow me to trade more actively and setup up trades better during opportunities. My volume and market exposure will also increase more likely because of that as well. But this would be ok as an expansion to my trading business book.

Monthly Trading Review

The opening month of this quarter has shown outperformance in my trading career due to placing more research, playbook reps, market screen time, and reaching out to networks and learning from other traders with more experience in the field that are giving back to the community. I can't say it's coincidence but I also did attend the Traders4ACause event this month. I kept telling myself, "I'm traveling and meeting other professional traders in the field," and doing so "I should be really pushing myself to developing limits in my business to add value around me." Now it wasn't just a personal remote operating business, it shifted into a peer career jump. Yes, I admit I was a bit nervous, but not too much. I should have done more networking with others but it was my first time at an actual trading/investing event/conference. Very insightful to meet and share in person stories, experiences, and wisdom. Looking forward to attending more in the future.

As far as research goes, I was spending more time outside market hours in the evening after work and on weekends. This allowed more prep into the quarter opening for corporate reports being released. I playbooked and review every trade I took as normal but this month it felt like I doubled it which allowed even more reps. Additional Market screen time is also where I'm currently working in and an area where I can gain more edge and business from. I noticed I can be more precise and active with my trades as shown in the last week. This will be dependent on the market, catalyst, and edges in play. Telling myself now not to expect more for the remaining quarter but will keep working on the areas I mentioned and continue to work on risk where it needs to be. Grateful and appreciative to be able to participate in this venture with other growth minded individuals, teams, and giving back + helping culture of the trading community.