UPS Trade on Oct 26, 2021 15:35 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Markets continued momentum from the prior week with some selling mid and buying higher to end the month. Seasonal market trends favor buyers into the end of the year but will be watching closely for notable changes if the rate of buying and positive sentiment increases with more momentum. Very notable week in regards of total company earnings reports. Supply constraints were noted in multiple areas. Hyperinflation and cryptocurrency are also seen in high public relation sentiment but noteworthy fundamental and market structure developments are continuing to be observed. (ie. ETF/SEC regulations, FED updates on policies + global central banks)

Fundamentals In Play Analysis

UPS reported a modest EPS beat given FedEx's miss last month. UPS has been able to manage the labor shortage better. Demand remained high and revenue increased y/y in all 3 segments. They also are active on their share repurchase plan. They commented and have a bullish outlook going into the Q4 holiday season.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 2.32
AVOL 2.82M
ATR 4.69
Beta 1.08
VIX 15.98
Volatility 2.24% 1.97%
Short Float 1.07%
Shs Float 728.23M
Inst Own 70.40%
Market Cap 185.88B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading + Order Flow + Dark Pool Levels + Flow Sentiment

SI 3.027
IV 24.90%
IVP 15%
P/C 0.697
VWAP 218.327

Options Positioning

OI 610 1404
VOL 1198 579
Delta -.04 -.01
Theta -.10 -.04
Vega .02 .01
Gamma .01 .00
Prob T 8.04% 2.41%
Prob ITM 4.06% 1.22%
MMM +/- 6.075
IV Series 34.30%

Earnings Statistics

Technical Analysis

Trade Setup/Execution Grade + Risk (risk:premium) + Positioning + Size/Allocation + Dynamic Management & Review

Trade Setup : A
Execution : A/B
Risk/Premium : 0.5/1
Positioning Risk | Std Dev : conservative/moderate | -3.66
Size/Allocation Risk : 16%
Dynamic Risk : Yes

The trade was within my playbook parameters but there had been a recent price run-up in front of earnings with a large gap. Day 1 intraday price consolidation failure and breakdown was a key risk variable in my trade management. I had begin scaling out and by EOD I had fully exited to focus on better trade's in play. There was no drawdown on the trade and it was executed as planned.