PYPL Trade on Oct 25, 2021 15:50 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Markets continued momentum from the prior week with some selling mid and buying higher to end the month. Seasonal market trends favor buyers into the end of the year but will be watching closely for notable changes if the rate of buying and positive sentiment increases with more momentum. Very notable week in regards of total company earnings reports. Supply constraints were noted in multiple areas. Hyperinflation and cryptocurrency are also seen in high public relation sentiment but noteworthy fundamental and market structure developments are continuing to be observed. (ie. ETF/SEC regulations, FED updates on policies + global central banks)

Fundamentals In Play Analysis

PayPal in the pre-market opening into the week that it was not pursuing the acquisition of Pinterest. PayPal had sold off last week in response to the unconfirmed reports. This is also taking place before their earnings on November 8th.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 3.14
AVOL 7.29M
ATR 8.62
Beta 1.15
VIX 15.24
Volatility 4.55% 3.05%
Short Float 0.98%
Shs Float 1.17B
Inst Own 82.40%
Market Cap 293.48B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading + Order Flow + Dark Pool Levels + Flow Sentiment

SI 1.091
IV 38.62%
IVP 33%
P/C 0.271
VWAP 250.506

Options Positioning

OI 1219 397 5936 1197
VOL 955 176 3678 306
Delta -.02 .00 .02 .00
Theta -.09 -.02 -.06 -.02
Vega .01 .00 .01 .00
Gamma .00 .00 .00 .00
Prob T 5.55% 0.99% 3.08% 0.61%
Prob ITM 2.81% 0.50% 1.53% 0.58%
MMM +/- 9.507
IV Series 42.28%

Technical Analysis

Trade Setup/Execution Grade + Risk (risk:premium) + Positioning + Size/Allocation + Dynamic Management & Review

Trade Setup : B
Execution : B
Risk/Premium : 0.4/1
Positioning Risk | Std Dev : conservative | +4.17 -3.39
Size/Allocation Risk : 8%
Dynamic Risk : Yes

My original thesis was for the market to make a bottom here and consolidate on the news. It did gap higher but fully retraced it. When sellers flush 240 there was more risk to the downside as I was fully scaled out of the long position. This was not part of an (A) playbook but I was developing a new trade for a consolidation/trend reversion trade. Dynamic position risk management was key to mitigating the overall loss on the trade. The short end of the trade was kept but not added as more focus on fresh in-play trades was more important.