Markets continued momentum from the prior week with some selling mid and buying higher to end the month. Seasonal market trends favor buyers into the end of the year but will be watching closely for notable changes if the rate of buying and positive sentiment increases with more momentum. Very notable week in regards of total company earnings reports. Supply constraints were noted in multiple areas. Hyperinflation and cryptocurrency are also seen in high public relation sentiment but noteworthy fundamental and market structure developments are continuing to be observed. (ie. ETF/SEC regulations, FED updates on policies + global central banks)
Fundamentals In Play Analysis
Lockheed Martin missed on revenues, stated supply chain challenges, moderating growth rates in US defense budget, and shifts in customer priorities driven by events such as the withdrawal of US forces in recent prior areas. These were factors impacting the companies sales trajectory. They guided FY21 EPS above consensus but revenues for FY21 + FY22 below consensus.
Quantitative Analysis
Intraday Fundamentals
RVOL 7.84
AVOL 1.19M
ATR 8.71
Beta 0.99
VIX 15.98
Volatility 2.47% 1.85%
Short Float 0.85%
Shs Float 276.69M
Inst Own 75.30%
Market Cap 91.55B
Options Statistics + Tape Reading + Order Flow + Dark Pool Levels + Flow Sentiment
SI 16.309
IV 24.85%
IVP 32%
P/C 0.7
VWAP 334.579
Options Positioning
OI 115 255
VOL 708 347
Delta .06 .02
Theta -.26 -.10
Vega .07 .01
Gamma .01 .00
Prob T 11.36% 2.63%
Prob ITM 5.61% 1.30%
MMM +/- 9.177
IV Series 34.30%
Earnings Statistics
Technical Analysis
Trade Setup/Execution Grade + Risk (risk:premium) + Positioning + Size/Allocation + Dynamic Management & Review
Trade Setup : A+
Execution : A+
Risk/Premium : 0.46/1
Positioning Risk | Std Dev : aggressive | +3.12
Size/Allocation Risk : 32%
Dynamic Risk : No
This was an (A+) setup in my playbook and was able to position on the aggressive end of my parameters. Still positioning within HTF technical levels but I could consider moving closer to the market increasing my delta. If I were to do that here I would be moving into an even higher liquidity area. Will have to gauge this on these setups in order to improve. Will more likely have to consider dynamic positioning if this is the case as well in the event the position trades against the market.
Execution detail:
Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
---|---|---|---|---|
2021-10-26 15:15:41 | 29 OCT 21 355 CALL | sell | $0.4000 | short |
2021-10-26 15:15:41 | 29 OCT 21 385 CALL | buy | $0.1300 | long |
2021-10-29 15:59:59 | 29 OCT 21 355 CALL | buy | $0.0000 | 0 |
2021-10-29 15:59:59 | 29 OCT 21 385 CALL | sell | $0.0000 | 0 |
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