Markets continued momentum from the prior week with some selling mid and buying higher to end the month. Seasonal market trends favor buyers into the end of the year but will be watching closely for notable changes if the rate of buying and positive sentiment increases with more momentum. Very notable week in regards of total company earnings reports. Supply constraints were noted in multiple areas. Hyperinflation and cryptocurrency are also seen in high public relation sentiment but noteworthy fundamental and market structure developments are continuing to be observed. (ie. ETF/SEC regulations, FED updates on policies + global central banks)
Fundamentals In Play Analysis
Snap advertising revenue has been directly effected by Apple's App Tracking Transparency updates. They had previously guided Q3 revs higher citing confidence within the new updates and had missed those estimates and guided Q4 lower in addition. Their report had other related companies with similar business models trade in sympathy. The company currently trades at a valuation of 18.6x forward sales within its peers.
Quantitative Analysis
Intraday Fundamentals
RVOL 3.14
AVOL 19.76M
ATR 4.54
Beta 1.23
VIX 15.24
Volatility 5.45% 4.67%
Short Float 4.27%
Shs Float 1.17B
Inst Own 64.60%
Market Cap 117.38B
Options Statistics + Tape Reading + Order Flow + Dark Pool Levels + Flow Sentiment
SI 1.627
IV 58.94%
IVP 20%
P/C 0.332
VWAP 54.832
Options Positioning
OI 5541 608
VOL 2833 396
Delta .03 .02
Theta -.06 -.03
Vega .00 .00
Gamma .01 .01
Prob T 5.27% 2.41%
Prob ITM 2.57% 1.18%
MMM +/- 3.902
IV Series 78.39%
Earnings Statistics
Technical Analysis
Trade Setup/Execution Grade + Risk (risk:premium) + Positioning + Size/Allocation + Dynamic Management & Review
Trade Setup : A
Execution : A
Risk/Premium : 0.4/1
Positioning Risk | Std Dev : conservative/moderate | +3.79
Size/Allocation Risk : 9%
Dynamic Risk : No
Overall good trade to start the week. This is a specific trade I'm working in my playbook for earnings. Positioning was good and within my working parameters and will continue to use this with technical levels.
Execution detail:
Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
---|---|---|---|---|
2021-10-25 15:11:51 | 29 OCT 21 70 CALL | sell | $0.0900 | short |
2021-10-25 15:11:51 | 29 OCT 21 74.5 CALL | buy | $0.0400 | long |
2021-10-29 15:59:59 | 29 OCT 21 70 CALL | buy | $0.0000 | 0 |
2021-10-29 15:59:59 | 29 OCT 21 74.5 CALL | sell | $0.0000 | 0 |
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