QCOM Trade on Nov 4, 2021 15:13 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Markets with continued momentum into the week at just past the peak of earnings season. FED meeting added more momentum into the mid to end of the week to the upside. Markets having been moving more in the a directional term and in some areas squeezing higher. Aggressive bids in play with profit taking. Longer-term breakouts in IWM and other areas. Breadth is very strong.

Fundamentals In Play Analysis

Qualcomm reported Q4 upside EPS, revs, and raised Q1 guidance. The company has navigated the supply constraint issues very efficiently by adding additional diverse segments including decreasing Apple related chip production to increase Android chips, IoT space, and the automotive industry. It is showing a growth change in their business model.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 7.02
AVOL 6.85M
ATR 3.85
Beta 1.34
VIX 15.44
Volatility 2.18% 1.93%
Short Float 1.31%
Shs Float 1.13B
Inst Own 74.30%
Market Cap 176.95B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading + Order Flow + Dark Pool Levels + Flow Sentiment

SI 7.734
IV 36.88%
IVP 38%
P/C 0.293
VWAP 156.252

Options Positioning

OI 2 464 178 646
VOL 3360 351 3190 3089
Delta -.04 -.01 .03 .01
Theta -.10 -.02 -.18 -.04
Vega .01 .00 .01 .00
Gamma .02 .00 .01 .00
Prob T 8.69% 1.39% 4.77% 1.58%
Prob ITM 4.38% 0.70% 2.36% 0.78%
MMM +/- 5.033
IV Series 58.36%

Earnings Statistics

Technical Analysis

Trade Setup/Execution Grade + Risk (risk:premium) + Positioning + Size/Allocation + Dynamic Management & Review

Trade Setup : A
Execution : C
Risk/Premium : 2/1 (max adjusted risk:premium = 2x premium)
Positioning Risk | Std Dev : moderate/conservative | -2.93 +5.47
Size/Allocation Risk : 11%
Dynamic Risk : Yes

The trade thesis was for price to stay within the range. What I failed to add in my variable is a risk management system in the case where momentum strongly moves outside day 1 range. I also failed to recognize the buyers in control on day 1 on the shorter-term time frame. These are a couple major variables I will have to assess in future similar trades.

A few outstanding variables I'm also noting is the strike selection on the upside. My position was gamma squeezed after the fact. There were also 4x more volume on the ATM strike above the market D1. This trade was setup to trade higher the next day. I placed too much emphasis on the daily candle and offer volume. I need to use all my variables.

The trade was forced into and I need to slow down to catch the details. The element of this being within my biggest trading week was also a factor and will add to the weekly review on that.