AMZN Trade on Nov 1, 2021 15:52 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Markets with continued momentum into the week at just past the peak of earnings season. FED meeting added more momentum into the mid to end of the week to the upside. Markets having been moving more in the a directional term and in some areas squeezing higher. Aggressive bids in play with profit taking. Longer-term breakouts in IWM and other areas. Breadth is very strong.

Fundamentals In Play Analysis

Amazon reported Q3 earnings miss and guided Q4 revs below consensus. They posted a 2.84 EPS miss which was the largest in five years. There was a notable jump in inflationary costs. Upcoming Prime spending comps is forecasted to be a challenge comparing Q4 from last year.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 1.17 1.14
AVOL 3.06M 2.95M
ATR 74.24 74.85
Beta 1.13 1.13
VIX 16.41 15.10
Volatility 2.50% 1.88% 2.56% 1.85%
Short Float 1.10%
Shs Float 437.50M
Inst Own 59.80%
Market Cap 1717.35B 1751.46B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading + Order Flow + Dark Pool Levels + Flow Sentiment

SI 1.106 1.212
IV 25.08% 24.64%
IVP 13% 12%
P/C 0.663 0.41
VWAP 3325.799 3351.221

Options Positioning

OI 2726 1584 1843 889
VOL 1486 1258 1163 207
Delta .02 .01 -.01 -.01
Theta -.79 -.47 -.34 -.23
Vega .20 .11 .06 .03
Gamma .00 .00 .00 .00
Prob T 4.42% 2.14% 2.08% 1.15%
Prob ITM 2.19% 1.06% 1.05% 0.58%
MMM +/- 77.489 52.5218
IV Series 25.76% 24.61%

Earnings Statistics

Technical Analysis

Trade Setup/Execution Grade + Risk (risk:premium) + Positioning + Size/Allocation + Dynamic Management & Review

Trade Setup : B
Execution : C
Risk/Premium : 2/1 (max adjusted risk:premium = 2x premium)
Positioning Risk | Std Dev : moderate | +4.02 -3.37
Size/Allocation Risk : 13%
Dynamic Risk : Yes

The short leg of the trade was in higher risk when testing 3380. This was a strong reversal at the close of the FOMC meeting. The market had changed and I failed to recognize this. I did place a long trade to dynamically hedge + add more into the overall trade. The next day my alert at 3462.52 was triggered and I failed to recognize again that the overwhelming buyers in control. I had an adapted thesis of this ranging but after the fact that was again invalid. There was more risk to the upside as the position increased in risk.

Key here is to take off risk sooner than later. The market reversed strongly on the FED meeting. My original thesis of funds flow into small caps from large caps was good but it did not play out as funds moved into to all sets of assets even with an initial earnings selling reaction.

In future trades I need to emphasize the market + take off positions sooner. I'll be placing Y high + low alerts in my HTF trades as I move closer to the market + place server side alerts when R/P limits are triggered. I'll save orders for executions off the server so I can execute them still discretionally but more timely.