Difficult trade, the parameters for the "Blow-off Top" setup were there, except the most important one:
-- NO "out-sized green candle that traded much larger volume than the average volume in the previous days, closing near/at HOD".
Since setup was not entirely there, but had a bit of FOMO and wanted to participate, got short << filler size, risking stop above the premium wall at $200.
Thesis started to form:
-- Extreme call buying + extreme euphoria for the name
-- couple of analyst PT upgrades
-- +15% rally in 10 days w/o any news, almost $3T market cap that had to get for no reason (lol??)
-- rebalancing of index at 12/17, definitely a "sell" after recent action
-- the most liquid name + huge float, so difficult to have extreme volume bars
-- only name to rally while overall market flat, NQ names getting decimated all over the place
Felt confident for a pullback to 9SMA@daily at a minimum, so:
-- scaled slowly into the frontside as the 2nd out-sized green bar was forming, risking stop to 1xATR higher than the close, $186
-- Next day gap higher was A+ "Blow-off Top" setup, even w/o the volume of the prvious day bar being larger than the average daily volume. Added one full tier as it rejected premarket high $182, rolled over and lost VWAP
-- 1st target 9SMA@daily, 2nd target 20SMA@daily, want to get flat in-front of 9SMA@weekly
Covered some with bids as close to 9SMA@daily as possible. Next target is the
-- Re-shorted some vs stop at ATHs=$182,
-- expecting a pullback to low $170s at a minimum
Covered 90% at target $160 and lower.
01-27-2021
Nice pop after ER back to previous support (now resistance) pivot=$168. Many trapped bagholders that paid $168+ sitting above. Shouldn't be able to reclaim and hold above that level.
-- Re-shorted some, tight stop above 9SMA@weekly=$173s,
-- expecting a pullback to retest $160s
Stopped out of the $168 adds as stock had different plans, reclaiming $168 pivot and pushing towards 9SMA@weekly.
Holding remaining size from beofre, stop ATHs.
03-01-2022
Got rejected exactly where it should < $168, below all key-MA at daily and weekly chart.
Felt confident to re-short the tier I had to cover after ER #s.
-- Re-shorted one Tier, stop $172s for the add,
-- expecting a pullback to retest $157s, 2nd target $150s
03-08-2022
Flush into 1st target $157, covered 20% size in-front of the level.
Let's see how it will react here, I think 200SMA@daily=$153, and $147-150 area are on deck.
03-14-2022
Covering into $150s!!! Insane read of price action. Insane trade.
Can we get $140s to get flat???
03-22-2022 to 04-04-2022
Back in-front of main resistance=$168. One hell of a gamma squeeze. Someone is playing with the options market...160k option calls with strike $165-175 expiring 03/25. This vertical move will retrace fully soon.
-- Carefully and slowly re-shorted 1 tier, stop ATHs for entire position
-- Target $140s at a minimum
04-28-2022
Worked like a charm. Taking profits on the way towards target. They even sold the ER report.
05-12-2022
Taking profits into $138-140 major daily support area.
07-15-2022
-- Reloaded short very small size, stop for entire position $165s
-- I think this will retest $130s soon...
07-27-2022 to 08-01-2022
-- Building position size vs $156 resistance level, stop for entire position $165s
-- I want to see $AAPL getting rejected in the $156-160 area....
-- Target $130s
NOTE: Earnings coming up
Execution detail:
Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
---|---|---|---|---|
2021-12-08 11:05:56 | AAPL | sell | $173.460 | short |
2021-12-10 08:52:16 | AAPL | sell | $175.536 | short |
2021-12-10 14:06:33 | AAPL | sell | $177.660 | short |
2021-12-10 14:06:45 | AAPL | sell | $177.665 | short |
2021-12-10 15:56:55 | AAPL | sell | $179.265 | short |
2021-12-13 09:32:38 | AAPL | sell | $180.650 | short |
2021-12-14 11:09:51 | AAPL | buy | $173.230 | short |
2021-12-14 12:26:16 | AAPL | buy | $172.297 | short |
2021-12-15 14:43:24 | AAPL | sell | $177.640 | short |
2021-12-15 14:43:32 | AAPL | sell | $177.710 | short |
2021-12-16 14:07:11 | AAPL | buy | $173.230 | short |
2021-12-17 04:14:35 | AAPL | buy | $170.310 | short |
2021-12-17 10:17:56 | AAPL | buy | $169.860 | short |
2021-12-17 15:58:37 | AAPL | buy | $171.450 | short |
2021-12-20 04:01:00 | AAPL | buy | $168.090 | short |
2021-12-27 09:38:35 | AAPL | sell | $178.100 | short |
2021-12-27 12:43:47 | AAPL | sell | $179.072 | short |
2022-01-07 10:41:18 | AAPL | buy | $171.940 | short |
2022-01-10 07:57:16 | AAPL | buy | $170.210 | short |
2022-01-10 08:54:03 | AAPL | buy | $169.210 | short |
2022-01-10 10:25:42 | AAPL | buy | $168.650 | short |
2022-01-10 10:25:49 | AAPL | buy | $168.710 | short |
2022-01-10 10:46:01 | AAPL | buy | $168.490 | short |
2022-01-19 11:01:32 | AAPL | buy | $169.200 | short |
2022-01-19 11:23:41 | AAPL | buy | $167.610 | short |
2022-01-19 11:28:00 | AAPL | buy | $167.930 | short |
2022-01-21 09:46:14 | AAPL | buy | $163.990 | short |
2022-01-24 05:19:15 | AAPL | buy | $161.110 | short |
2022-01-24 05:43:33 | AAPL | buy | $160.160 | short |
2022-01-24 08:19:15 | AAPL | buy | $159.830 | short |
2022-01-24 10:24:24 | AAPL | buy | $158.680 | short |
2022-01-24 11:41:26 | AAPL | buy | $157.220 | short |
2022-01-24 12:26:04 | AAPL | buy | $154.875 | short |
2022-01-27 18:08:05 | AAPL | sell | $167.260 | short |
2022-01-27 18:31:33 | AAPL | sell | $166.850 | short |
2022-01-31 10:12:47 | AAPL | buy | $173.550 | short |
2022-03-01 10:01:29 | AAPL | sell | $165.590 | short |
2022-03-08 10:25:26 | AAPL | buy | $157.220 | short |
2022-03-14 04:26:09 | AAPL | buy | $154.110 | short |
2022-03-14 08:17:49 | AAPL | buy | $152.060 | short |
2022-03-14 15:54:32 | AAPL | buy | $150.220 | short |
2022-03-22 10:19:14 | AAPL | sell | $167.730 | short |
2022-03-22 10:20:09 | AAPL | sell | $167.800 | short |
2022-03-23 11:23:04 | AAPL | sell | $171.470 | short |
2022-03-25 08:39:11 | AAPL | sell | $173.950 | short |
2022-03-25 09:47:11 | AAPL | sell | $174.361 | short |
2022-03-25 11:02:05 | AAPL | sell | $174.230 | short |
2022-03-29 08:25:21 | AAPL | sell | $176.860 | short |
2022-03-29 08:26:06 | AAPL | sell | $176.870 | short |
2022-03-29 14:59:00 | AAPL | sell | $178.200 | short |
2022-03-30 09:36:35 | AAPL | sell | $179.120 | short |
2022-04-01 08:42:16 | AAPL | buy | $174.110 | short |
2022-04-08 09:37:23 | AAPL | buy | $170.160 | short |
2022-04-08 09:59:59 | AAPL | buy | $169.220 | short |
2022-04-11 04:18:18 | AAPL | buy | $168.360 | short |
2022-04-11 10:17:29 | AAPL | buy | $167.175 | short |
2022-04-11 15:24:58 | AAPL | buy | $166.200 | short |
2022-04-18 12:44:10 | AAPL | buy | $164.060 | short |
2022-04-18 12:45:25 | AAPL | buy | $164.080 | short |
2022-04-25 04:50:01 | AAPL | buy | $160.210 | short |
2022-04-27 08:07:19 | AAPL | buy | $156.500 | short |
2022-05-02 14:32:20 | AAPL | buy | $154.088 | short |
2022-05-09 12:05:22 | AAPL | buy | $151.790 | short |
2022-05-11 12:56:48 | AAPL | buy | $150.220 | short |
2022-05-11 15:32:02 | AAPL | buy | $146.660 | short |
2022-05-12 09:43:11 | AAPL | buy | $141.000 | short |
2022-05-12 10:00:14 | AAPL | buy | $140.550 | short |
2022-05-12 10:05:41 | AAPL | buy | $141.310 | short |
2022-05-20 12:20:21 | AAPL | buy | $135.430 | short |
2022-05-20 13:31:28 | AAPL | buy | $133.100 | short |
2022-06-13 09:55:00 | AAPL | buy | $133.960 | short |
2022-07-15 12:01:03 | AAPL | sell | $148.600 | short |
2022-07-20 10:16:15 | AAPL | sell | $151.087 | short |
2022-07-21 09:20:31 | AAPL | sell | $153.920 | short |
2022-07-22 10:11:55 | AAPL | sell | $155.910 | short |
2022-07-25 10:21:09 | AAPL | buy | $152.880 | short |
2022-07-27 14:47:22 | AAPL | sell | $155.780 | short |
2022-07-28 16:14:11 | AAPL | sell | $158.000 | short |
2022-07-29 08:06:58 | AAPL | sell | $161.300 | short |
2022-07-29 10:07:17 | AAPL | sell | $162.160 | short |
2022-08-03 12:17:02 | AAPL | sell | $164.530 | short |
2022-08-03 12:56:13 | AAPL | sell | $165.840 | short |
2022-08-04 10:36:34 | AAPL | buy | $164.590 | short |
2022-08-05 08:30:11 | AAPL | buy | $164.610 | short |
2022-08-05 10:20:28 | AAPL | sell | $165.670 | short |
2022-08-05 11:02:00 | AAPL | buy | $164.510 | short |
2022-08-05 14:35:11 | AAPL | buy | $164.710 | short |
2022-08-05 15:58:00 | AAPL | buy | $165.215 | short |
2022-08-08 09:30:30 | AAPL | buy | $166.380 | short |
2022-08-09 08:11:13 | AAPL | buy | $163.540 | short |
2022-08-10 12:32:34 | AAPL | sell | $167.920 | short |
2022-08-11 09:33:00 | AAPL | buy | $170.460 | short |
2022-08-11 09:33:08 | AAPL | sell | $170.370 | short |
2022-08-11 10:22:41 | AAPL | sell | $170.350 | short |
2022-08-15 14:15:33 | AAPL | sell | $172.940 | short |
2022-08-22 08:37:26 | AAPL | buy | $168.800 | short |
2022-08-22 14:58:25 | AAPL | buy | $167.570 | short |
2022-08-23 15:52:51 | AAPL | buy | $167.100 | short |
2022-08-29 04:02:28 | AAPL | buy | $161.100 | short |
2022-08-30 11:07:41 | AAPL | buy | $159.280 | short |
2022-08-30 13:28:05 | AAPL | buy | $158.280 | short |
2022-08-30 15:23:39 | AAPL | buy | $159.070 | short |
2022-09-01 08:32:00 | AAPL | buy | $156.230 | short |
2022-09-01 11:36:41 | AAPL | buy | $156.390 | short |
2022-10-07 13:34:10 | AAPL | buy | $140.200 | short |
2022-10-10 10:06:22 | AAPL | buy | $139.120 | short |
2022-10-28 11:05:18 | AAPL | sell | $155.510 | short |
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