KAVL Trade on Feb 15, 2022 09:33 from BanalityOfEvil: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

KAVL – Opening Drive

Trade Idea
KAVL will reach 3.50 or higher on the opening drive, max target is 4.30
Setup Quality - B

Big Picture
Spy rallying on the open, Crypto rallying on the open, Russia tensions decreasing
KAVL forming technical breakout at LTSR with crypto sympathy, KAVL up 2 days in a row, 3rd day play
Float 11M
RVOL 37x
ATR .38
VIX @ 25

Plan
Expect price action to be choppy but to trend higher into the late morning. Expect heavy algo presence.
Watch KAVL for a break of 3, get long when breaks and holds, sell into strength using 1/2s. Add momentum lots if can get good enough price. An algo has been controlling the price action on this stock for the past 3 days, moving it slowly higher. Today may be a little different because price is now above a key inflection point and short interest will be elevated
Give the price plenty of room to be pushed around by the algo, hold through pullbacks, as this pattern has occurred over the past few sessions in the name. Hold 20% minimum to target until R2S. This will probably not go parabolic due to market conditions and algo presence.
Reasons to sell
• Stopped out
• price breaks below 3 and holds
• Trend reversal confirmation on chart
• Volume thins out severely
• Target is reached
• Bullish liquidity event occurs

Executions
@9:33 bought the break of 3 on large volume
@9:41 added price holding above 3, tape speeding up, volume expansion
@9:43 sold half to get close to break even on the day because of execution error on AGRI
@9:47 sold another ½ to put me in the green on the day. Maybe should have held, but do not want to have a red day.
@9:58 heavy dark pool bot activity on the time and sales, price holding above 3, holding small size
@10am price testing 3 and holding a few cents above, level holding, holding 300 shares @ 3.09 AVG, wish I could have held more but unfortunately needed to make up for execution error on AGRI. If the general market was more bullish, I would have considered not taking so much profit so quickly, because that is poor trading (taking profits early on 1 trade to make up for losses in another trade)
@10:58 added 25 shares realizing that I still had some BP left, added near bottom of range
@11AM SPY TESTING HOD, with Russia tensions easing, money may move into growth names (very speculative thesis) but we may see additional volume pour into this out of further crypto sympathy on the day since crypto is grinding higher and AMAZON just announced acceptance of payment through WAVD (WAVEDANCER) a crypto payment platform. This could cause additional bullish sympathy into KAVL.
@11:08 140k shares on the bid @ $3.04 vs. 30k on the offer @ 3.14 – hold unless $3 breaks and holds lower
@11:11 bid moving higher 35k @ 3.10 and offers are stacking up to 3.18, but no single large level is clear on offer
@11-1pm HFT algos have control of the stock, manipulating the spread and trading in a range just enough to entice traders to enter at certain points, while frontrunning their liquidity. Stock may shake out to below 3 dollars, but until a break of 3 holds, I will hold.
@1:07 massive whale liquidates position, selling 1.2 million shares in less that 1/10th of a second, no prints, no offers on level 2, just smokes it, decimating the stock price and executing my emergency hard-stop. Disappointing but this is the game we play, and it is a reminder not to hold illiquid and heavily manipulated low floats into the afternoon session. Dark pool whale surprises are how a 2,3,4,5R trade gets turned into a .5R trade or worse.

Key Takeaways
Don’t hold positions in the afternoon on 3rd day plays if liquidity has dried up and Algos are churning a range… god damnit that is so annoying to give back profits like that… can’t help but feeling a little bitter right now.