Shared by
BanalityOfEvil
PLAY
LGVN – Opening Drive
CATALYST
• Fresh News
7:30:14AM
LGVNEXCLUSIVE: LONGEVERON HIGHLIGHTS PUBLICATION OF PHASE 1 RESULTS OF LOMECEL-B FOR ALZHEIMER'S IN MEDICAL JOURNAL 'ALZHEIMER'S & DEMENTIA'MIAMI, FL– MARCH 31, 2022 - LONGEVERON INC. (NASDAQ:LGVN), A CLINICAL STAGE BIOPHARMA COMPANY DEVELOPING CELLULAR THERAPIES FOR AGING-RELATED ILLNESSES, CHRONIC DISORDERS, AND OTHER SPECIFIC LIFE-THREATENING B
TRADE IDEA
LGVN could touch $10 on the Opening Drive and potentially move to $11 intraday
SETUP QUALITY
B
BIG PICTURE
Markets a bit weak, seems like it may be a risk off day for long traders. Fresh news out of Ukraine is negative and large investors will most likely be risk averse today due to yield curve inversion indication yesterday. SPY has held below 460 in premarket, and VIX is back in the 20’s. There may be more opportunity on the short side today, but I expect markets will probably close near flat from the open. I do not expect SPY to reclaim 460 today.
• SPY under 460
• VIX over 20
• Fresh News
• Float 3.26M (trade ideas)
• RVOL 200x
• ATR .86
• Short % 29% (trade ideas) - SHORTS MAY BEGIN TO PANIC AROUND $10
• Former MOMO stock
• Gapper
• Historically my largest win intraday back in November, but this news is not quite as good
PLAN
Enter a small position in premarket around $9 support, if price jumps to $10 in premarket take 100% profit. On open, allow price to test 8.75/9 before considering an entry. Watch the tape for signs of a bottom. Do not trade with large size since the market is weak and the news is not A1. If cannot get filled around support, then the next entry will be a strong break over and hold of $9.75. 1st target is $11, take 80% profit and leave a runner just in case this decides to rip.
• Premarket position stop is break and hold below $8.75, intraday stop on same entry is break and hold below 9
• Fresh entry at 9.75 area is any tick below lowest candle of consolidation low
EXECUTIONS AND PRICE ACTION
@9:05 – allowed price to test 8.80s, entered small position on vwap break @ $9, price has been choppy premarket
@OPEN – lots of algos printing, tape is heavy, got filled on quick spike to HOD, took off 80%, not liking the HFT presence… this will most likely struggle for the rest of the open. Will leave a runner on for a larger move intraday.
@11:45 – algo presence has remained heavy and price has chopped and grinded higher, try and hold this runner to 11
@11:47 – took profit, target is captured and I need to leave for work
KEY TAKEAWAYS
• good job recognizing there may be some opportunity in this, it may be tricky, and was not an A+ setup like in November 2021
• good job sizing down, as market seems to be struggling a bit to move higher
• DAS allowed you to get filled at your targets
• Good job committing to targets and sizing so you could capture without stressing about risk too much since it was a risk-off day on the long side
Premarket Prep
Symbol
SPY
VIX
Execution detail:
| Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-03-31 09:08:44 | LGVN | buy | $9.320 | long |
| 2022-03-31 09:08:44 | LGVN | buy | $9.320 | long |
| 2022-03-31 09:09:20 | LGVN | buy | $9.320 | long |
| 2022-03-31 09:30:11 | LGVN | sell | $9.595 | long |
| 2022-03-31 11:46:44 | LGVN | sell | $10.950 | 0 |
Comments
BanalityOfEvil
Thank you, it’s only 50%. My p/l ratio is 1.5. I usually cut pretty quick if I don’t like it.
helltrader985
I recognize some SMB's terminology, right? Anyways, great preparation & analysis work
Absolutely, those guys are the best. I find that committing to this kind of journaling often makes me think twice about taking a marginal trade. Not fun to fill out long-winded journals on dumb trades!
rileysheehan
Great trade
Wondering since you said you will usually cut quick if you don't like the trade,how do you gage when it is a hold below support like here with 9.02? I've struggled with this usually exiting when it turns out to just be a wick fakeout.
Also, this ran higher afterwards, so did you deal with any fomo or did you just take your eyes off the trade after the exit at res?
Thank you Riley.
No fomo effects on this one for 2 reasons. 1.) if my plan was for 11 and I took my profit at target then I did my job and don't care if it goes higher. I don't think this is a good market to chase in anyways. 2.) I had to leave for work so I had no qualms with exiting here lol. I hate trying to manage positions from my phone.
as far as gauging a hold below support... it depends but I look at a few things, and it can depend on the stock that day.
1.) I don't like to think of support and resistance as hard lines, but more like areas. thinking like this has helped me from cutting too quick. I like to focus in on the tape and volume in these areas for hints.
2.) As far as candlesticks, I don't mind seeing a small wick on the 1min below support, as long as the following candle can reclaim quickly and close green (I would not apply this to late morning/afternoon or low volume times). SOMETIMES if price is dancing around these areas and putting in bottom wicks for a few candles and holding the area then I may add, especially if I see buyers are in control on the level 2.
3.) If I see a lot algos printing in premarket, I know that the stock is going to be heavily manipulated on the open (especially low float gappers) and probably do massive volume intraday and chop around sideways for a bit... since all these bots are programmed to either a.) profit from frontrunning everyone's orderflow or b.)position themselves for mean reversion trades, I know that I will have to get a good price early, size down a bit, and give it some room on the open. These bastards are designed to screw with your head and your wallet (but hey... spreads are tight and commissions are free right? smh)
I like buying support in this market, buying at resistance breakout areas is not working for me.
rileysheehan
Hey, I didn't know you had responded to this question, didn't get any notification, but thank you for the response. Big lesson of using levels as areas is great. Yeah, free commissions just a way for algos to make us feel like we run the market. That's interesting too every breakout has been immediate rejection lately. I've looked through a ton of your trades by the way and learned too much because of how deep you go into analysis, thanks again. I'll be asking more questions.
rileysheehan
You said you sometimes add if wicks dancing around levels, so when would be a situation where you don't?
Hey Riley,
I’m glad to hear that you got some value out of some of these. I don’t add if I see certain things like
-spread starts widening too much/stock is trading too thin
-wicks are forming below previous large wicks (proving the support area is not strong)
- tape gets really slow
- sellers are stacked at support on L2 and bids keep dropping
It’s worth mentioning that I will use these areas to try and get a core on, but I try to be mindful to not get TOO BIG since there is always the chance that these low floaters could drop quickly if a large seller starts unloading (I notice this happens most often on 2nd or 3rd day if stock is still trending higher). The big swing players will be unloading and the risk is that the stock will capitulate.
rileysheehan
Hey,
This is great. I don't use L2 and tape as much as I should, but now seeing how much it contributes to an edge it might be something to look into. For a beginner with L2 would das be a good option like it seems youre using or would something else suffice?
Nice. Yeah L2 and tape are huge with scalping strategies, and all my trades start as a scalp. I have used a couple brokers but not a ton. I can 100% say that when I was using a free broker provided platform my executions were always horrible, especially in premarket and after hours. There’s a few direct-access execution platforms but DAS has been very reliable for me.
To answer your question, I think it will suffice if you are not trying to short term trade. I don’t have exact stats but I would say that on TD Ameritrade I would get filled 1/10 times in premarket. With direct access it’s more like 9.5/10.
I would probably not be profitable without it. Plus the hot-keys are highly customizable.
rileysheehan
Interesting. Yeah, I've noticed how hard it is to trade pre mkt and after hours with more popular brokers. This is good to know though, because It does seem like the L2 and tape give an explanation to the randomness of trading by the way you use it, what the chart isn't showing. Thanks for this response.
rileysheehan
Thank you.
SMB capital is great. I've mostly been watching the Bret Steinbarger stuff recently trying to manage the emotional side, but good to know that they provide value on tape reading as well. I'll look into this.
Leave a comment about this trade!
You need to log into your Tradervue account to leave a comment. If you don't have one,
it takes
just a few seconds to sign up, and it's free!
Great work! What is you ave win rate?