Revenue was up 4.4% in the quarter to $1.90 billion, but that fell short of the $1.96 billion analysts had expected. On the bottom line, net income rose from $109.8 million a year ago to $206.8 million, or $0.94 per share, $0.02 ahead of estimates.
What concerned investors more was 2016 guidance of $5.90 to $6.10 per share in earnings, which was below analysts' consensus estimate of $6.27 per share
Intraday was 69.3. 70 is important level and seem like the level to hold. 69.3 was just a leakage.
I scaled into long position with 70 as my risk. The range on this stock was large and therefore I was careful to not go in too deep. When it broke the immediate downtrend line before 130pm, I added in heavy looking for a break to the upside over 71. Then I went to the meeting at 130pm. When I got back, it had broken over 71 into 71.5 and quickly got rejected. Instead of seeing this strong rejection as a sign of breakout failure, I added more on the pullback to 71. Subsequently I stopped myself out and readded near 70.5 small but it was not holding so I got out entirely. I should have recognized the sign of breakout failure as a place to get out. PLUS, THE STOCK HAD PREVIOUSLY FAILED AT THIS PRICE EARLIER 71.5, WHICH I SHOULD HAVE NOTED.
I looked for a short opportunity subsequently as SPY was not holding up and was trending down all day. I thought this could fade if can crack below 70. So I added rather heavy in my short position but not too big where I can't manage my risk since I knew the ATR was huge. When it tested 70 a few times, I recognized this as a sign of failure to breakdown 70 and quickly exited and got long with a conviction flip trade.
I added heavy since I recognized sign of breakdown had FAILED. it was also late in the day. I was going for a short squeeze. The only mismanage was I bought more when I meant to have sold some below 72. This was a mistake that should not happen. I scaled into 72s using vwap as a guide for exit.
Execution detail:
Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
---|---|---|---|---|
2016-02-02 12:07:45 | RCL | buy | $71.380 | long |
2016-02-02 12:23:18 | RCL | buy | $70.810 | long |
2016-02-02 13:02:28 | RCL | buy | $70.200 | long |
2016-02-02 13:25:17 | RCL | buy | $70.750 | long |
2016-02-02 13:28:28 | RCL | buy | $70.890 | long |
2016-02-02 13:28:53 | RCL | buy | $70.970 | long |
2016-02-02 13:49:22 | RCL | buy | $71.060 | long |
2016-02-02 13:52:14 | RCL | buy | $70.850 | long |
2016-02-02 14:07:07 | RCL | sell | $70.500 | long |
2016-02-02 14:20:05 | RCL | buy | $70.510 | long |
2016-02-02 14:21:45 | RCL | sell | $70.250 | 0 |
2016-02-02 14:21:45 | RCL | sell | $70.250 | short |
2016-02-02 14:21:54 | RCL | sell | $70.250 | short |
2016-02-02 14:32:03 | RCL | sell | $70.490 | short |
2016-02-02 14:32:41 | RCL | sell | $70.450 | short |
2016-02-02 14:50:58 | RCL | buy | $70.040 | short |
2016-02-02 14:54:33 | RCL | buy | $70.110 | short |
2016-02-02 14:57:32 | RCL | sell | $70.180 | short |
2016-02-02 15:01:01 | RCL | buy | $70.590 | 0 |
2016-02-02 15:01:01 | RCL | buy | $70.590 | long |
2016-02-02 15:04:37 | RCL | buy | $70.610 | long |
2016-02-02 15:22:42 | RCL | buy | $71.910 | long |
2016-02-02 15:37:12 | RCL | sell | $72.010 | long |
2016-02-02 15:40:46 | RCL | sell | $72.130 | long |
2016-02-02 15:41:51 | RCL | sell | $72.270 | long |
2016-02-02 15:42:00 | RCL | sell | $72.400 | long |
2016-02-02 15:43:07 | RCL | sell | $72.340 | long |
2016-02-02 15:45:20 | RCL | sell | $71.850 | 0 |
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