RCL Trade on Feb 2, 2016 12:07 from tsun: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

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tsun

 

Revenue was up 4.4% in the quarter to $1.90 billion, but that fell short of the $1.96 billion analysts had expected. On the bottom line, net income rose from $109.8 million a year ago to $206.8 million, or $0.94 per share, $0.02 ahead of estimates.

What concerned investors more was 2016 guidance of $5.90 to $6.10 per share in earnings, which was below analysts' consensus estimate of $6.27 per share

Intraday was 69.3. 70 is important level and seem like the level to hold. 69.3 was just a leakage.

I scaled into long position with 70 as my risk. The range on this stock was large and therefore I was careful to not go in too deep. When it broke the immediate downtrend line before 130pm, I added in heavy looking for a break to the upside over 71. Then I went to the meeting at 130pm. When I got back, it had broken over 71 into 71.5 and quickly got rejected. Instead of seeing this strong rejection as a sign of breakout failure, I added more on the pullback to 71. Subsequently I stopped myself out and readded near 70.5 small but it was not holding so I got out entirely. I should have recognized the sign of breakout failure as a place to get out. PLUS, THE STOCK HAD PREVIOUSLY FAILED AT THIS PRICE EARLIER 71.5, WHICH I SHOULD HAVE NOTED.

I looked for a short opportunity subsequently as SPY was not holding up and was trending down all day. I thought this could fade if can crack below 70. So I added rather heavy in my short position but not too big where I can't manage my risk since I knew the ATR was huge. When it tested 70 a few times, I recognized this as a sign of failure to breakdown 70 and quickly exited and got long with a conviction flip trade.

I added heavy since I recognized sign of breakdown had FAILED. it was also late in the day. I was going for a short squeeze. The only mismanage was I bought more when I meant to have sold some below 72. This was a mistake that should not happen. I scaled into 72s using vwap as a guide for exit.


Execution detail:

Date/time Symbol Side Price Position
2016-02-02 12:07:45 RCL buy $71.380 long
2016-02-02 12:23:18 RCL buy $70.810 long
2016-02-02 13:02:28 RCL buy $70.200 long
2016-02-02 13:25:17 RCL buy $70.750 long
2016-02-02 13:28:28 RCL buy $70.890 long
2016-02-02 13:28:53 RCL buy $70.970 long
2016-02-02 13:49:22 RCL buy $71.060 long
2016-02-02 13:52:14 RCL buy $70.850 long
2016-02-02 14:07:07 RCL sell $70.500 long
2016-02-02 14:20:05 RCL buy $70.510 long
2016-02-02 14:21:45 RCL sell $70.250 0
2016-02-02 14:21:45 RCL sell $70.250 short
2016-02-02 14:21:54 RCL sell $70.250 short
2016-02-02 14:32:03 RCL sell $70.490 short
2016-02-02 14:32:41 RCL sell $70.450 short
2016-02-02 14:50:58 RCL buy $70.040 short
2016-02-02 14:54:33 RCL buy $70.110 short
2016-02-02 14:57:32 RCL sell $70.180 short
2016-02-02 15:01:01 RCL buy $70.590 0
2016-02-02 15:01:01 RCL buy $70.590 long
2016-02-02 15:04:37 RCL buy $70.610 long
2016-02-02 15:22:42 RCL buy $71.910 long
2016-02-02 15:37:12 RCL sell $72.010 long
2016-02-02 15:40:46 RCL sell $72.130 long
2016-02-02 15:41:51 RCL sell $72.270 long
2016-02-02 15:42:00 RCL sell $72.400 long
2016-02-02 15:43:07 RCL sell $72.340 long
2016-02-02 15:45:20 RCL sell $71.850 0


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