Shared by
dpaleo
Tags:
OpEx $40 resistance looking for close below so short above for quick fade
Execution detail:
| Date/time | Symbol | Qty | Price | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-07-15 15:23:56 | RBLX | -468 | $40.080 | -468 |
| 2022-07-15 15:24:47 | RBLX | -532 | $40.070 | -1000 |
| 2022-07-15 15:32:01 | RBLX | -500 | $40.220 | -1500 |
| 2022-07-15 15:32:20 | RBLX | -100 | $40.175 | -1600 |
| 2022-07-15 15:32:20 | RBLX | -400 | $40.170 | -2000 |
| 2022-07-15 15:33:18 | RBLX | -75 | $40.050 | -2075 |
| 2022-07-15 15:33:30 | RBLX | -425 | $40.060 | -2500 |
| 2022-07-15 15:47:46 | RBLX | 100 | $39.860 | -2400 |
| 2022-07-15 15:48:09 | RBLX | 300 | $39.830 | -2100 |
| 2022-07-15 15:49:29 | RBLX | 200 | $39.770 | -1900 |
| 2022-07-15 15:50:00 | RBLX | 100 | $39.760 | -1800 |
| 2022-07-15 15:51:36 | RBLX | 20 | $39.715 | -1780 |
| 2022-07-15 15:51:36 | RBLX | 480 | $39.720 | -1300 |
| 2022-07-15 15:53:24 | RBLX | 200 | $39.680 | -1100 |
| 2022-07-15 15:57:13 | RBLX | 100 | $39.630 | -1000 |
| 2022-07-15 15:59:00 | RBLX | 1000 | $39.710 | 0 |
Comments
HelloMrMotto
dpaleo
lol No secret. Maybe years of scars from getting run over shorting too early.
You're right I very easily coulda shorted that 2:55 with thesis I had. Luck played a role here bc I was focused in on AMZN trade when it put that candle in so I didnt see it at the time.
I wish I could trade momo in direction of trend better. Something I'm working on. Reversals/mean reversion is tough. I take a ton of small losses - my win % is below 50%. I dont share all my trades, only the ones where I think there is something interesting or a good lesson. But my winners tend to be multiples of my losers which is needed for this kidna strategy.
I absolutely use the index. But The best reversals/reversion setups and trades will be uncorrelated to index. Those trades have a parabolic shape to them, ideally with 3 or more 5min candles that each get longer in size, with a pretty volume build to this climax. Those extension trades are the highest probability once you get a reversal candle. You dont want the setup to slow down and turn into a grind with candles shrinking. Also, low floaters where someone is controlling the float should be excluded from this. Take a look at the RBLX trade I shared from July 8. There is a big 10min move off the open followed by a bull flag breakout at 10:00. From there you have a nice little rally/grind higher until 10:30 when both volume and advance really pick up. That 10:35 candle is really big as is the volume. Its easy to see that it just extends away from itself. The 1min bar that had most volume felt like the climax so I offered and hit some bids. Ideally, there would be some price skipping higher but didnt get that here. What a beauty 5min inverse hammer with more volume than opening 2 bars. That is a very high probability setup and signal. That should work regardless of what the index is doing. Other setups that maybe dont check all the boxes will likely need some help from the index so I'm always cognizant of where the index is (levels) and what its doing / how its acting.
Hope that helps a bit. Happy to go into more detail or send more examples/notes.
alhadi249
thanks dpaleo i always look at your trades, i hope you can add note more on your trades
tradejetx
Was always wondering how you manage to have a 70+ winrate on reversal trades. Glad to find out I'm not the only one struggling to be above 50% on fades. How quick to you cut the small trades that you don't share? Is it a max loss per trade cut, a price level cut, or a time cut? Thanks
Depends on the signal and setup, but a lot of them like the failed new highs/lows shoulda work right away, i'll rarley give them more than 10-15mins to work. Obviously sometimes that backfires but its PnL accretive in long run. I use new high/low stops a bunch and do actively manage them as time passes.
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I’m kinda curious what’s your secret? :) How are you able to pinpoint tops with that precision? It’s very interesting to see!
I mean if you go by the candles why didn’t you go short on that 2:55 candle into 40$ level, what made you wait for a higher high?
I usually trade in the direction of the trend but i’ve experimented with reversals and find then so difficult to predict! I do see you take losses sometimes but still sometimes you’re able to tell when it will reverse.
Do you use the index to guide you maybe? There’s gotta be something i’m missing! Even reading from your notes i see you look for engulfing candles or hammer candles to give you a signal, tried that but found it challenging too!