Play Idea
Second day bounce play because of the substantial pull back the that happened the day before. The day before Netflix issued a lowered guidance on their subscriber growth in 2016 and this caused the 10%+ pullback in the after market. The next day, I was looking to get long for a bounce of 1% to 2% in order to advantage of .50 to $1 move. I believed that this stock was oversold and it should still be trading between the $98 to $102 range. I thought for sure this would close above 96.50 because of how this stock moved in the past.
What Went Wrong
- It had a big move at the open but then faded into 10:30. I was looking to catch to catch a reversal on the fade, So I started a position at 11am because I thought an uptrend started. I should have been more patient because it almost immediately pulled back.
- The first rule that I didn't follow was setting my stop at .25 so that I could keep my loss around $50.
- Instead of taking a small loss I pushed my stop back and I added another 100 to average down because I still believed my thesis that it would close above $96.50 by end of day.
- The stock was moving good between $95.75 and $96 and would occasionally drop to $95.50 but I thought that was a strong support level for the day.
- I second rule that I didn't follow was walking away from a trade with a stop that would create a larger loss ($200.00). I thought the $95.50 was a good support level so I set a stop at $95.40 because I thought the only way it would hit that was if it broke support and would drop towards $94.00. In other words, I didn't think it would drop to $95.40 unless the stock was in a fixed downtrend for the rest of the day.
- I had to walk away from my trade to talk to people but thought I was safe because my stop was set below where the stock would go. An hour later, I was wrong and saw that the price dipped to around $95.35 and then immediately bounced back to $96.20s. I got stopped out and whipsawed.
- The stock ended up at 96.70 by the end of the day which would have lead to a profit of $200, instead I got stopped out at $95.40 which lead to a loss of $200.
Conclusions
I honestly don't care that I missed out on a $200 profit but I hated the fact that I could have had a $50 loss instead of a $200 if I kept to my stop loss rule of $50. My first error was not being patient enough for a lower price of $95.50 to $95.75. I initially thought $95.75 would be a nice entry but was impatient. I was write about where the stock would go by the end of the day, but I was wrong about the journey it would take to get there. That's why you should have tight stops and stick to them.
What I Learned
- Stick to your small stop
- Don't average down on an intraday trade
- Don't leave a trade open even with a stop if you have to walk away from the computer.
- Don't break your own rules
- Be patient for a good price.
Execution detail:
Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
---|---|---|---|---|
2016-04-20 11:06:00 | NFLX | buy | $96.150 | long |
2016-04-20 11:34:00 | NFLX | buy | $95.750 | long |
2016-04-20 13:43:00 | NFLX | sell | $95.390 | 0 |
You need to log into your Tradervue account to leave a comment. If you don't have one,
it takes
just a few seconds to sign up, and it's free!