FOUR Trade on Feb 28, 2023 14:40 from Maarten: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

FOUR 28-2-23
“Catalyst: Earnings beat, (guides lower)
Setup: positive reaction: 9.5%, 2.9ATR
Technicals: Very steady trend since December. Recently broke down below 50 SMA on significant selling volume. ST action is not very strong.
Pre volume buzz: 3.6%
Volume could definitely be higher, catalyst better. ST not a great setup but not extremely weak either. Gaps ups above the 50SMA. 6.5/10

16:19PM notes
582% volume and did a 1.11ATR push. Now failing down VWAP on increased volume. Has some room until the 50SMA but don’t think I want to trade it for a reversal. Needs to show extreme weakness.”

-How successful were you in identifying the market environment and playbook variables during the trading session? What signs were present for this environment?
Update expectations and keep making notes.
Maybe undervalued the setup premarket. But the volume increased a lot and was significant intraday. The morning price action wasn’t amazing and I called that out. But I should keep making notes during the day. Because FOUR wen t from:
-Opening drive of 1.1ATR followed by sell off on elevated volume.
-Break down VWAP.
to:
-Reclaim VWAP
-Ranging (nonvolatile) price action/consolidation.
-Break opening range on elevated buying volume.
Result: Strong trend

Set more alerts!
I had an alert for the break of the opening range high. But I should set an alert for a VWAP reclaim. Then when I see a decent push and an extension of the 9EMA followed by consolidation on shallow volume, I should set alerts for the break of that consolidation and break of average volume.

Too much selling and check HTF’s!
What I noticed but didn’t write down is the large amount of selling volume, all but one candle were below average, but still it was a lot. It’s not just about above or below average. It’s also about amount relative to prior buying and selling volume. When I compare the selling volume with the selling preceding two earlier upswings, it’s there’s a lot more selling being done.
This also becomes a lot more clear when I look at a higher time frame like the 10m or 15m chart. On the 10m the volume is above average and it’s obvious that the amount has doubled. I am not watching the HTF’s enough. When I am trading a ticker I must watch it, no excuses. If patterns/setups are also visible/high quality on higher time frames than more traders will see it and this will increase the odds. The first clean PB that occurred was decent on the 5m chart but looked VERY good on the HTF’s.
This is definitely a check against me that I had noticed. I incorporated it in my trade management.

Missed PB
-Visible on HTF’s.
-First PB after change of trend.
-Bounce of intraday support: opening range high.

What was the ideal entry point? How does that compare to your entry? What signals (if any) did the market provide, which could have led to an improved entry?

I was very patient. I entered only when there was a significant increase in buying volume preceding the large selling. I didn’t chase and placed an order on the bid, got my 25% entry. Had this high elevated volume not occurred, then I shouldn’t have entered.

What was the optimal trade management strategy, in order to minimize risk when wrong or maximize gain when right? How does that compare to your trade management strategy? What signals (if any) did the market provide for moving the stop to breakeven, or beyond?

Call it what it is: a move2move trade.
I think these were conditions favoring a trailing stop. That’s because the high elevated volume in the retracement. It was a clear CHOCH in the overall trend. I wanted this trade to work quickly and hold the 9EMA. Therefore I should have called it what it is: a move2move trade. I have been focused only on trades2hold lately. But some trades that I took weren’t trades2hold. For me a move2move should about not be willing to hold through major pullbacks and swings in P&L. It isn’t as much about duration. It there is a slow nonvolatile uptrend along the 9EMA that takes an hour, this could be a move2move trade for me.

That’s how I managed it.
Once FOUR made a 1.5R move the trade was working for me. The initial plan was to adjust my stop to BE. SPY failed to reclaim the EMA’s and bounce and FOUR at the same time sold off quickly. My order didn’t get filled, instead I hit the bid and I took at 0.27R loss.

Trade idea: 6/10. The volume in the retracement didn’t make this a great setup. Strong buying volume and quick reclaim of EMA’s was crucial>
Execution: 5/10. Good entry but this trade shouldn’t have turned into a loss.