Shared by
Goku_BOWS
Daily Setup: Gap and go; short
Intraday Setup: Pullback to MA
Layers of Probability: Poor earnings, gapped below support, sell-off upon open, QQQs bear flagging
Entry: Inside 5 and down
Stop: Inside 5 high
Targets: 77.51, 77, 76
Thoughts/Thesis/Notes during the trade:
Pullback to 8EMA and failed, consolidating above 78, break of 78/VWAP should flush. (afterthought: wait for VWAP to fail, between two S/R averages )
Circuit broken: makes it harder for a quick flush, short sellers can't hit the bid.
Entered early on inside 5 for better price, QQQs bear flagging
Stop above inside 5.
Add more on break of 78.
Stopped
Re-entered w/ 8EMA @ 80 (HOD, level) and failed, late @ 79.18; should have anticipated 80 fail
IWM strong, QQQs bearish
Will add w/ break of 78. cover that lot at 77.51 for quick $$.
Final target 76
Added on uptick to original price, no setup, just wanted to be able to sell next down-tick to 78. Looks like 78 may be the floor. Will cover at 78.51 to lock some in, rejected at 8EMA, but strong/holding in well
Above 80 could squeeze. Bad add, outside risk parameters.
Markets now look strong across the board, did not check that first.
Updated cover to 79.01 for exit; this is not a buy the ticket setup, I went over my parameters and looking for a reasonable exit. Or should I just market out?
Not trading properly at all... trying to force a trade that's not working and trading with blinders on. Not a terrible setup, but was definitely trying to force it by adding more. Should've only been at 1/4 - 1/2 size. No volume confirmation, VIX fading taking away volatility.
Areas of Success: Patience for pullback setup, did not trade first 15
Areas to Improve: Look at entire picture, lower position/risk size if not an A setup.
Execution detail:
| Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-20 10:08:00 | PDD | sell | $78.520 | short |
| 2023-03-20 10:11:00 | PDD | buy | $79.250 | 0 |
| 2023-03-20 10:13:00 | PDD | sell | $79.180 | short |
| 2023-03-20 10:23:00 | PDD | sell | $79.210 | short |
| 2023-03-20 10:30:00 | PDD | buy | $79.000 | short |
| 2023-03-20 10:32:00 | PDD | sell | $79.600 | short |
| 2023-03-20 10:33:00 | PDD | buy | $79.050 | short |
| 2023-03-20 10:39:00 | PDD | buy | $80.010 | 0 |
Comments
Goku_BOWS
Yeah, agree with your thoughts. I'll have to look back at when I trade this and see which is more successful, the immediate pullback, time correction, or drive then correct. I suspect you are correct, especially with DO thoughts on the matter. Very hard to get the flush too with it being circuit broken.
I think in part I was kinda revenge trading my missed opps. I wanted it short at the open, and then watching for the bounce, but couldn't find the right entry/risk for me.
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Was watching this one as well with a very similar though process. Was waiting for a bounce to the 8 EMA, and then for a signal to get short. IMO this downside momo drive right at open made it harder for their to be continuation post retracement to the 8 EMA, so great job recognizing while this trade had positive expectancy, was probably not the one to hit with a ton of size.
I think had this bounced at the open, giving a sharp price correction bigger picture, and then given signal to short could have been a much higher probabilistic trade to maybe get in with size. IDK for sure just a thought.