YUMC Trade on Jul 6, 2017 10:40 from Emilie_BOWS: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

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Emilie_BOWS

 

Context: earnings breakdown, gapped below daily 50 SMA
Intraday: VWAP/bear flag
Took entry after the VWAP test and red candle with upper wick.


Execution detail:

Date/time Symbol Side Price Position
2017-07-06 10:40:08 YUMC sell $35.500 short
2017-07-06 11:19:29 YUMC sell $35.070 short
2017-07-06 14:20:42 YUMC buy $34.130 short
2017-07-06 15:39:03 YUMC buy $33.630 0


Comments

Gravatar VinnyB
2017-07-06 19:04:17
 

Hey,

Why didn't you short it before in the bear flag around 10-10:20? It was consolidating under some daily chart level and it was under vwap and bear flagging so I thought it would be a great setup.

It worked for a little but then spiked $1 almost.

I get why you shorted again on the rejection and the wick at vwap. Your stop was to the high of the wick, right? Did you think 50 cents was a lot to risk for a thicker stock like this or that doesn't matter to you?

Why didn't you add around 1:10 and 1:45 with those bear flags?

For your covers you covered around 2pm since that is when reversals can occur, right? And then the last cover at 3:30 was you saw the candle turn green quickly and it was near the close anyway?

Thanks for sharing as always.

2017-07-06 19:56:02
 

I didn't short it earlier because if I enter on the breakdown it would be already too close to $35 whole number. If it goes to 35.10 or so then reverses I don't know what to do. Additionally, it hadn't tested either the 9 EMA or VWAP while being so close, it might do that any time soon.
My stop was high of wick. I didn't check the float but I never think about risk in the way you mentioned. I always think about stop in terms of risk versus potential reward. If I risk 50c I try to figure whether a $1 reward is feasible.
I missed those adds which I think was a mistake. I thought it was already selling since the open and feared that it might decide to stop trending down. In hindsight, the selling was orderly, the tight consolidation was long enough and the risk was small.
You're right about the covers.

Gravatar VinnyB
2017-07-06 20:18:00
 

Could you talk more about the first part of what you wrote?

I get that whole numbers can act as support or resistance but that doesn't mean it can't be broken obviously. $35 wasn't a level or anything that I saw on the higher time frames.

If you get in at $35 for instance, wouldn't it just be like any other trade and you give it to the prior high or candles or EMAs?

In the morning, shouldn't the 9EMA take time to reach the candles with a gap that low anyway? It didn't hit VWAP but it was close enough.

Have you seen that these bear flags have to touch VWAP if they are going to work?

2017-07-07 01:17:47
 

$35 wasn't a major level but still a whole number. Yes that doesn't it can't be broken but there was definitely a chance of a bounce from there. As I said, I also considered the fact that it hadn't touched VWAP/9 EMA so I was more cautious. If I am already in a trade, I wouldn't mind the whole number level as much as I am just about to enter. Or, if price is consolidating over/under $35 then breaks down, I'd feel more comfortable. Oh and it's a China stock. I find China stocks tend to have jerky moves.
I always have pre-market data on so my 9 EMA is close to price action very early.
Yeah it was close enough to VWAP. Taking the short before it hit the VWAP wasn't a mistake. I usually enter a trade after I see some kind of "rejected" candle so I tend to be slower to act when I haven't seen that.
Bear flags, touch or not touch VWAP, don't always work obviously. I guess probability is a bit higher if I wait to see how the stock acts at the VWAP but I don't always wait because of FOMO (well, many don't touch VWAP and still go down all day).

To answer your question on LB: I didn't watch it at the open. I think the ORB on that one looks good (in hindsight).

Gravatar VinnyB
2017-07-08 15:25:41
 

Thanks for your responses.

I have a question not related to setups exactly but more about psychology/trade management.

How do you let your trades work without moving your stops up prematurely or changing your plan mid-trade when it's not warranted?

How do you just let the trade work? Have you had to work on that or were you always naturally good at that?

I am in good setups but get in my own way often.

Thanks again for all the help you provide.

2017-07-17 02:21:43
 

The textbook answer for your question is to have a plan before entering the trade and stick with it :-)

However, I'm not naturally good at following any plan. Exiting a trade prematurely has always been one of my most frequent and costly mistakes. I had to work on it.
Here are a few things that I did:
- I reviewed all my trades at the end of the week. If there is a trade I changed my plan mid-trade and exit (take profit) earlier than I planned to, I calculated what the P&L would have been had I followed my plan. There were trades I could have win more and trades I could have lost more. Then I calculated the total P&L of all the trades. It turned out my profits for the week could have been double or triple had I just followed my plan. I did that same calculation for 4 weeks and the results were always the same. Those results shown that changing plan mid-trade cost me much more than whatever amount I could save by exiting earlier. After I saw those numbers I became much more determined to stick to my plan during a trade.
- I wrote down a reminder to not change plan mid-trade and focus on working on that everyday. Until now I still have to remind myself every morning about that one so that I can be mindful about it during the day.
- It was very uncomfortable at first because I would get very anxious when price action looked "bad" for my trade. Sometimes I had to walk away from my desk or do something else. Then I got used to that feeling and many times, my trade worked out fine.

- Try to be mindful of my thoughts during a trading day. That helps me to recognize thought pattern that often leads to me making bad decisions. Whenever I have those thoughts, I wait for them to go away instead of acting on them.

I can only speak from my experience but for me, I think I had that problem mostly because my fear of losing. When I was still in the struggling phase, every loss was devastating so naturally I tried to avoid that or tried to take a smaller loss than planned in order to feel better. When I became more competent, I won more often than I lost and my winners were often much bigger than my losers. That gave me the confidence to stick to my plan because I didn't care as much about a losing trade as before.

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