AMD Trade on Mar 8, 2024 10:33 from lateralus014: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Thesis:

Broke down pretty hard with the market. Went +6% to -2% on the day.

Really saw the 5 minute chart cruising upward, thought about shorting it, and when I saw the 2 minute bar on volume and top wick, got short. Added on break of that bar.

For holding, I held til VWAP, took some off, then took some off at previous levels. I could've held of course, in hindsight, but in the moment I didn't think it was gonna fall that far.

I did consider adding, but didn't want to eat into profits.

This is the kind of trade where it is so unbelievably in our favour, it's a crime not to find somewhere to add. The odds were so far in our basket when the market, NVDA, and of course AMD were selling on volume under VWAP. But yea, didn't think it would close low of day on the Friday. Been burned so many times.

Setup:

Top wick bar with volume on the 2 minute chart, parabolic chart on the 5, market taking heavy damage at all time high, went vertical up, vertical down.

ATR:

RVOL:

AVD:

SF:

The Good:

I did a pretty good job holding, and it's a big win for us. Took exits at logical spots, including last exit which was support for the entire week. Saw it, got short, chilled out, didn't try to scalp any out.

The Bad:

Kinda just took it, could've easily just have went against us (it was extended, but we kind of went in on feeling) I think it worked out, and that's why we're very positive. The chart is repeatable, and I'll see it again I'm sure. I think we could've added once it was so far in our direction: Just step back, look at where we can add, where does it make sense. The breakdown of VWAP is a very obvious spot I think. There was another pop up to 213 area, it was also a break area on the 5 minute.

The Ugly:

Where I can improve in the future in a another similar setup:

Holding for longer. Hold some for the close.

Repeatable (Y/N):

I think this setup shows up often, parabolic move up, and we short the top. This sometimes takes a few papercuts, but I think risk management (taking small hits) and then getting in small when we think the backside is in, and adding when it continues lower.

Really good looking at the market also, once it broke, we had a lot of confidence.