USDCAD Trade on Oct 23, 2018 09:14 from stewartcelani: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

HTF

Monthly
- Consolidating. This month is bullish.
Weekly
- Slowly trending up over time, last 3 weeks bullish and last week bullish low test rejecting upward sloping trend-line and 50 EMA.
- Looks like we are breaking out of a down-sloping bear flag overall.
Daily
- 5th day of run up with deceleration/high test doji yesterday at minor daily S/R at 1.3125 (which lines up with todays R1 pivot perfectly)
- RSI peaked @ 100 today

Intradays

- Upward trend (which I caught 2R of) [closed on the 17th]

formed ascending wedge at minor daily S/R and top of bear flag formation (depends how you draw -- its sketchy as but I also saw Jakub draw it like this)
- 1H + 4H MACD divergence

Target

• 4 hour 50 EMA which coincides with daily 0.382
• Risk/reward: 2.64R
• Pullback play

Stop

• 25 pip stop, above highs, R1, ascending trendline and intraday S/R 1.3125

Entry

• As volume came back in as price looked to reject top of ascending triangle for triple tops
• Entered well above the 5m 50 EMA for better stop protect and RR

Negative Confluence

• The usual ABO negatives; entered above 5M 50 EMA, 1H 50 EMA, pivot etc

Notes

• I'm already live in EURUSD S swing trade and I'm hedging (looking for dollar strength vs euro while weakness vs cad). I have a much wider 70 pip stop on EURUSD and thats with the trend while this USDCAD postion is a pullback ABO against trend.
• Look to get long after TP; Long-term Paul has pointed out that USDCAD is a good long opportunity as other commodity pairs lost a lot versus the dollar this year and CAD hasn't yet and he's looking for CAD to be bought back in line with AUD & NZD.

Review

• Early close for 1R at 12:00 AM 30 minutes before high impact news (CAD rate announcement)
• I had the position covered for break-even but at this point, it would be a gamble plus this is a pullback play and we are nearly at 0.382 as well.
• After much debate I'd rather take my 1R and have it hit original target than it close for breakeven