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boldandnuts

 

TWLO

Nov 7, 2018 10:14


Tags:

Top Reversal Scaling In Double Down Bad Exit Bad Entry ATH

All hell broke lose with $TWLO

TWLO gapped up on Earnings and was strong during premarket already. 

For Support I had 80 77 and 74 marked and for resistance 84.50 and eventually 89 the all time high.

When TWLO tested the 89 level and broke above I thought it might just make a new high just to pull back below. $TWLO traded rather slowly and looked not that strong at that time. 

When it hesitated with the 90 level and consolidated I gave it a shot. $TWLO tested and rejected 90.50 and I had 88.50s in mind for a first target. That didn't happen. Even though I was in the green occasionally I did not take a partial.

Add#1 for average of 90.30 on 50 shares

$TWLO also tested and rejected 91 or so it looked. I added and it respected the 90.50 support to make another run up.

Add#2 for an average of 90.79 on 75 shares

I suppose I was a little too careless with my add when I added into 92s as $TWLO ran up further. Or grinded I should say. $TWLO finally found and respected 92.50 to make a move back below my Break-Even. 

For some reason I did not take off half to reduce my position. I really was too careless and overconfident in my trading approach. Not have I ignored signs of strength and did not wait for good confirmed entries, but entered and added erratically. Bad Behaviour!!!

Add#3 for Double Top?

When TWLO retested 92.50 and seemed like it would make a Double Top I added on the move lower for an average of 91.11 on 100 shares ready to take off half at break even.

$TWLO pulled back into 91.50 and made another run for highs. 

Add#4 for an average of 91.54 on 125 shares

It was about the time I got a little worried on my trade. $TWLO traded at new all time highs and there were no levels above I could refer to. It clearly was a strong mover and all dips and lowered bids were bought. 

I became a little more cautious on where to add and when 93 was tested I made another attempt that was bought up and lifted moments after my entry. 

Add#5 at 94 for 150shares to 91.92 average.

My overall position was still ok as I only took small pieces. However it got to me. I just had the feeling a pullback and small correction to get out was immenent.

Then it happened: at 94.50 instead of adding another partial on weakness as my offer was not filled I accidentally CLOSED half position AT THE HIGH to take a big loss. 

Erratically I added right back 50 shares for an average of 92.99 on 125 shares. REally bad behaviour.

$TWLO consolidated betwwen 95 and 94 for a while and I watched it with VWAP in mind for some sort of correction. But the market overall was really strong and at that time it was just a matter of getting out of the trade. 

Had I just seen the trade I would not have touched it as I did not like how (strong) it traded and would not have taken any position. But I was already in and now it was really stressful to manage. Even though the size was not too big, I was mentally and emotionally too involved. 

Add#6 for an average of 93.44 on 150 shares

My final add. I hesitated from taking another piece. Even when TWLO rejected 97 and traded between that and 94 for the remainder of the day. I was really "scared" it would break out above 97 and make another run. 

I had no confidence in further manage the trade. In hindsight I could have gotten out of it easily with by doubling the position at 97 for an average of just above 95. Or scale out with reduced losses into 96 and below to re-add into highs. 

But there was NO level above that I could rely on besides a Trendline that fell in a bit further above. TWLO never traded there, but there was no telling so as it grinded along slowly.  

Scaling out with losses

94 was support and when $TWLO finally looked like to pull back and below 95 I said to myself to just scale out and take the loss.

I did ok here, but should have taken off ALL of it on the break back above 95. Or at least add back to the 32 remaining stocks. 

Into the close TWLO tested 94 again where I took some final pieces off into it. 

Conclusion

Badly traded and managed trade. I am glad I got out and yes, frustrated about such a big loss. But it helps to realise the flaw in my approach and to be on my toes at all times. Get to know myself better and stay focused on GOOD ENTRIES. Stay calm, Markus. Even 300 shares would be an easy position to manage. But you need practice to get there. 

It is a setback but I have to make myself aware of the fact that I am still positive on the month, if not by much, but positive and that all other trades worked out good when I have levels that can act as pivots and anchor-points to base trades on. 

Lesson learned? Don't  short into new all time highs after good earnings when there are no further levels.


Execution detail:

Date/time Symbol Side Price Position
2018-11-07 10:14:00 TWLO sell $89.730 short
2018-11-07 10:29:00 TWLO sell $90.860 short
2018-11-07 10:34:00 TWLO sell $91.790 short
2018-11-07 10:55:00 TWLO sell $92.050 short
2018-11-07 11:06:00 TWLO sell $93.270 short
2018-11-07 11:12:00 TWLO sell $93.820 short
2018-11-07 11:20:00 TWLO sell $94.600 short
2018-11-07 11:20:00 TWLO buy $94.650 short
2018-11-07 11:38:00 TWLO sell $95.700 short
2018-11-07 13:20:00 TWLO buy $94.900 short
2018-11-07 13:26:00 TWLO buy $95.010 short
2018-11-07 13:30:00 TWLO buy $94.380 short
2018-11-07 13:44:00 TWLO buy $94.570 short
2018-11-07 15:21:00 TWLO buy $95.230 short
2018-11-07 15:38:00 TWLO buy $94.290 short
2018-11-07 15:39:00 TWLO buy $94.260 0


Comments

2018-11-08 21:32:31
 

Hi again. Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this one. To answer your question, I use Tradenet for my trading room. These guys all have 20+ years experience and their analysis is always very good. I don't take all of their plays, but my strategy is based on their approach. They have a YouTube channel that is competent free and I highly recommend it for you. For example, they were killing the TWLO long and that might be a good indicator tool to use in your strategy... perhaps to reduce your risk of even reverse your position on particular plays like that. Who knows, it could be helpful? Would you be interested in live trading with me over google hangouts or something? Then we could share our trades real time and speed up the learning curve.

2018-11-10 00:32:49
 

Mate never and never add when you are neg. I do many and many much more other mistakes but this could really lead to account blowing!
The reversal approach implies as strategy by itself a higher level of risk, that added on TWLO that day it makes a bomb that can obviously be in your favor but in case not you don't wanna carry that position man!
TWLO as super gainer should be left aside for an eventual reverse position just for the sake of the statistics. Too risky!! It was 10:15 when you entered that position and by that time that day other opportunities were already offered to us. I hope you have spotted any and those and this specific one was just a shot to improve the day. Lately I fucked it up a bit :P Catch up man ;)

2018-11-11 09:37:20
 

Yeah, know of Tradenet. Nice that they stream their Sessions on Youtube for free. Just too much noise for my taste. Haven't found a room that "feels" legit... also, you are more likely to follow other traders and jump on the bandwagon at bad prices for too much risk. Stick to your own entries.

I traded bad this week, but aware of it and will be adjusting to what I did in the next week.

2018-11-11 12:37:41
 

Mate I am part as student of a trading family/group that is more then legit. I am with them daily in their chatroom and I can grant you I am learning really really a lot with them. I don't trade their calls we just share our trades giving perhaps comments and help if needed. I was also skeptic regarding the trading education sold on line but i have found in the dudes of the Warrior Trading group professionalism and dedication to the Trading World!!!
If you want to check it out ;)
https://www.warriortrading.com/

2018-11-11 15:06:15
 

lol Aware of them. Ross is a good start if smallcaps is your thing. Otherwise it is useless. Mike trades like once a week and you would need 10 years of practice to get anywhere. I admire his discipline and patience. But he is a bad tutor as you only profit in case you are Inner Circle... Besides. Unless it was a trade right out of the gates, I usually was short or went long around when he went short... he would do good in learning how to read the tape, but seems to do good with the 15sec chart on eSignal. They make 7 to 8 figures with chatroom and courses p.a. I would be trading much more size if I had that kind of income and my trading would be just jump change on top of it...

2018-11-11 20:25:47
 

The course Ross provides is yes for small caps but together with Mike, Roberto and Arsh courses you will be able to have a complete view on how to day trade the stocks market on a daily basis. The technicals, mindset, risk management you get by Ross course can be applied not only for the small caps. Mike's strategy come on doesn't take 10 years to be applied it is instead a nice example on how to tame over-trading, compulsive choices, technicals, volumes and tape reading. The 15sec approach to enter trades is combined with tape reading for entry and stops and he provides solutions and studies on how to get there. Man you should join the chatroom and you will breath fresh positive and profitable energy around with no need of being in the inner circle. Have a great Monday trading day and let's make it a green one :D

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