SPY Trade on Feb 22, 2019 10:51 from over9k: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

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over9k

 
  1. 10:52:54 SPY S100s discression Failed HOD Triangle break R10c Exit@-1c took the breakdown, but we didn’t’ get the short momentum, so sold quickly. Made a new HOD rip after that.

Execution detail:

Date/time Symbol Side Price Position
2019-02-22 10:51:13 SPY sell $278.560 short
2019-02-22 10:52:30 SPY buy $278.570 0


Comments

Gravatar falfred
2019-02-23 08:55:21
 

I don't know what a HOD Triangle mean. When I look at your position I'm trying to get an understanding of your mind set. I'm not a scalp trader but I'm always curious to why some scalpers go against the market trend. I'm looking at the daily time frame and I see that price is over extended trading near the Dec 2018 highs. I can see why some traders might want to go short near the high. On the daily time frame, the market opens with a gap in price. Price is trading above the 200 and 50 EMA. These are all indications that the momentum of price is to move up. When I look at your 5 minute time frame, it's confirming what the daily chart is showing that the momentum of price is to move higher because price is trading above the 20 and 9 EMA. I'm assuming you enter and exit all your trades on the 1 minute time frame. Now your 1 minute time frame is confirming what price is doing on the daily and 5 minute time frame. Price on the 1 minute time frame is trading above the 20 EMA. If you look at the previous pivot low you will see that price broke the 20 EMA and then traded above the previous pivot high. All over those signs I just mention is showing that the momentum of the stock is to move higher. My question to you is what about this trade that told you that it's a high probability to short this market and make money from it?

2019-02-23 13:59:44
 

I am trading on daily and weekly, but if i look on this trade, there was a trading range both on 1 min and 5 min or flag. It really doesnt matter how you call it. The higher probability is that it will break in the direction of preceding trend which was up on both 1 min and 5 min. But you know 10 people 10 opinions. And also its hidsight bias from my side.

2019-03-03 09:09:10
 

@Falfred I try and keep my bias, as i am a scalper, between long and short trades very short term. When it comes to things like the 200 and 50 EMA these are only relevant to my trading when there is a chance the trade will react with these exact levels.

Being a scalper, I need to look for positions on both sides of the market to get enough movement within a day. With the SPY we often get pullbacks enough that they will justify taking scalps both long and short within a day even if there is a general market trend up or down.

The premise around this trade was that we had 2x HOD failures. When I saw the last pop up above the HOD and immidate failure. I saw a lack of stop orders being hit, and I took a very low risk (10c) at a shot for a run downwards. This kind of trade I do not want to fall in love with, or give too much room at all because if I am wrong. I will be very wrong (exactly what happned). I don't give a huge stop level, and just try and be in for when the short sellers get their chance.

The answer to your question, "what made me think this was a high probability short" is this: It was a low probability short with high upside potential for a strong enough move in the market for me to make a 2:1 or a 3:1. I was not expecting a new Low of day from this trade. I just wanted to be in on a trade with low initial risk. I just go for exposure with low risk really. The probability is quite low on many of my trades (last month win % of 40), but my average winner is almost 2:1 16avg winner 8.55 avg loser.

I'm happy with a trade like this where I got a minor break in my direction, enough to tighten my stop to near break even. When I get knocked out of the trade, then I have more of a long bias on the day. Although, I think I did miss the High of day right after this which hurt!

2019-03-03 09:11:37
 

@papo33 Yes you are right, there is a higher probability that it will break upwards, but after seeing the HOD broken, but sold right back down, the upside potential seemed immediately limited on this trade.

When i see a High of day break sold down with volume, I can see that it will not be a one sided fight, and that the bears still have a bit of power. 2x HOD rejections make me have a temporary short bias really.

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